Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $101,328 at the time of writing, erasing a 2.3% rally that had briefly pushed the price a day earlier to $103,885.
This breakdown confirms what on-chain data has been telling us about demand momentum fading, long-term holders selling to the bears, and a market testing the structural support last seen during the mid-cycle correction.
Two consecutive dips below $100,000 on November 4th and 5th further confirmed what on-chain data suggested.
According to a November 5th report from Glassnode, two clear reversals are needed for a return to bullish footing.
First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows need to turn net positive after two weeks of daily outflows of $150 million to $700 million.
Second, the price must recover the short-term holder’s cost basis of $112,500 and hold it as support.
Absent both reversals, Bitcoin risks falling to around $88,500, the price realized by active investors, a level that historically signals deeper corrections.
structural failure
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain above $112,500, the average acquisition price for coins held for less than 155 days. This threshold is important because short-term holders are exposed to unrealized losses and increase selling pressure when prices trade below their cost basis.
The current 11% discount from that level is deep enough by historical standards and could lead to further declines if support does not materialize.
At $100,000, about 71% of the circulating supply is still profitable, placing the market near the lower end of the 70% to 90% equilibrium range typical during mid-cycle economic slowdowns. This zone often causes a temporary relief rebound towards the cost base of short-term holders, but sustained recovery requires long-term consolidation and new demand.
If the sell-off pushes a large portion of the supply into the loss zone, the market risks moving into a deeper bearish phase.
Relative unrealized losses, which measure total unrealized losses as a percentage of market capitalization, are currently 3.1%, well below the 5% threshold typically seen in panic-driven declines.
In the bear market of 2022-2023, this indicator exceeded 10%. Current readings suggest an orderly reassessment rather than capitulation, but the cushion is thin.
Quiet distribution by long-term holders
What surprised me was the behavior of long-term holders. Since July 2025, this cohort has shed approximately 300,000 BTC, reducing supply from 14.7 million to 14.4 million.
Unlike previous distributions where experienced investors were bullish sellers during uptrends, they are now bearish sellers as prices fall, a change in behavior that indicates fatigue and diminished belief.
Expenditures become more clear when we consider coins with a new maturity, i.e. 155 days.
Long-term holders have spent around 2.4 million BTC since July, with new maturities offsetting most of the outflow. Excluding maturities, this expenditure represents approximately 12% of the circulating supply.
That’s considerable seller-side pressure operating behind the scenes.
ETF flows turn negative, derivatives signal caution
Demand from institutional investors has cooled sharply. The US Spot Bitcoin ETF has consistently recorded net outflows over the past two weeks, in contrast to the strong inflows from September to early October that supported price resilience.
Recent trends suggest a shift towards profit-taking and a reduced appetite for new exposure.
Spot market activity tells the same story. Cumulative volume delta bias turned negative across major exchanges. Binance and Aggregate Spot CVD recorded -822 BTC and 917 BTC, respectively, indicating continued short selling pressure.
Coinbase remains neutral at +170BTC, with little buy-side absorption. This deterioration reflects a slowdown in ETFs and suggests quick profit-taking on a rally.
On perpetual futures, the directional premium decreased from $338 million per month in April to about $118 million. This is the interest paid by long traders.
The move signals a widespread easing of speculative positioning as traders reduce directional leverage and favor neutrality over aggressive long exposure.
The options market has become increasingly defensive. Demand for puts remains strong, with traders paying a premium to protect against further declines rather than positioning for a reversal.
Short-term implied volatility spiked to 54% during the decline, and then returned to around 10 volume points as support formed.
The put premium on the $100,000 strike price soared as concerns that the bullish cycle was coming to an end grew.
Even though Bitcoin has stabilized, the premium remains elevated. Flow data shows that taker activity is primarily characterized by negative delta positioning, where puts are bought and calls are sold. The environment tends to favor protection rather than risk-taking, and there are no clear catalysts for upside.
Two flips are required.
The decisive change is that Bitcoin has fallen below the cost standard for short-term holders and stabilized around $100,000.
This revision reflects the previous mid-cycle slowdown, when supply remains largely available and unrealized losses are contained.
However, the continued dispersion of long-term holders and continued ETF outflows highlight waning confidence.
The market remains in a fragile equilibrium. Oversold but no panic, cautious but structurally intact. The next direction will depend on whether fresh demand can absorb continued circulation and bring solid support back to $112,500, or whether sellers can maintain control.
Until ETF flows turn net positive and the price regains $112,500, the bulls lack ammunition to reverse the structural weakness. These two flips will determine whether this adjustment ends or deepens further.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
