Since May 8, Bitcoin (BTC) has been limited to the $100,000 to $110,000 range, indicating that neither the bull nor the bear were in control. This integration phase continues as key digital assets enter the third quarter of the year.
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, BTC could perform even more poorly in the next three months. Because this quarter has been the weakest historically.
Standby Game BTC
Bitfinex analysts say BTC is taking part in the waiting game and will benefit from the overall on-chain and exchange activities, showing signs of cooling. Cryptocurrency bottomed out at $99,830 last week, causing a significant liquidation across the futures market. Long and short traders each suffered a total of hundreds of millions of liquidation.
Additionally, open interest that Bitcoin has become religious has dropped by 7.2% from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC. Bitfinex said the liquidation and reduced open profits indicated forced leverage events that cleared speculative positions on both sides. Flash reflects a highly responsive environment in which overly extended traders are caught off guard and leads to a short-term reset.
With the Flash once again easing open interest, analysts believe this market is suitable for critical action. As Q3 progresses, there is hope that it will deviate beyond the $100,000 to $110,000 in the short term.
Additionally, there have often been seasonal changes in market conditions between the second and third quarters in the past. Since 2013, BTC has recorded an average return rate of 27.12% in the second quarter and a 6.03% in the third quarter. The quarter is expected to reduce market volatility, and experts believe range-bound price action will last longer.
Market structure is still healthy
On a general note, the ongoing integration phase marks the first notable slowdown in Bitcoin’s momentum since assets fell to $74,000 due to fear driven by tariff escalation and geopolitical uncertainty. Since then, BTC has risen by about 50% to its new all-time high (ATHS), indicating resilience.
The momentum from that uptrend has begun to fade, but the broader market structure remains healthy, with the higher support zone still intact. On-chain data suggests that BTC is in the transition stage and can enter correction mode or continue lateral re-addition.
Continuous lack of spot volume and strengthening profits can lead to a significant decline. However, sustained institutional demand, particularly from US exchange funds (ETFs), could continue to maintain an upward trend, possibly leading to new ATHs.
