Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Why does Bitcoin drop?

Today’s Bitcoin price is trading at $112,967 and slips after a failed zone defense of $114,500-115,000. Sellers forced prices to an area of ​​$112,000, where heavy liquidity bids were clustered according to Coinglass data. The failure has sparked concern that the bull cycle may be in halt despite recent macrocatalysts.

Bitcoin prices break under Emma

The four-hour chart highlights the loss of the main moving average as BTC fell from nearly $117,800 from its September high. The 20-EMA is above the 50-EMA and has converged at 100 EMA, showing bearish momentum. The nearly $112,000 support coincides with the liquidity level that has accumulated between $400 million bids between $111,500 and $110,000.

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The momentum remains weak. The RSI is located at 36 and is close to the territory sold, but there are still no signs of a bullish turnaround. Traders warn that if they can’t exceed $112,000, the broader range could be exposed to $110,000 and $108,500. The advantage is that BTC will need to collect $114,800 and $116,000 to recover buyer control.

On-chain flow checks bearish tilt

The exchange flow emphasizes sales pressure. Data from September 23 shows a net outflow of $92.7 million from spot exchanges, a sign of capital leaving the venue. Larger outflows may be interpreted as accumulation, but the broader pattern after mid-September reflects sustained sales.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s used production profit margin (SOPR) is lower, indicating that coins used in the chain are lost or lowered in profit margin. This decline in profitability underscores the risk that meetings could be exhausted.

Market Liquidation Intel

The sudden recession cleared more than 402,000 traders in a day, bringing the total estimated losses to more than $400 million. The Bitcoin Clearing Heatmap confirms that price action targeted a dense liquidity cluster of around $112,000, suggesting that the decline was partially driven by an engineering halt execution.

Derivative data also points to weakening market structure. Open interest in futures has fallen sharply since peaked last week, but Taker has a buy/sell rate of -0.79, making sales activity stronger. Historically, such measurements have preceded the multi-week revision, similar to the drawdowns from January to April earlier this year.

Analysts warn of cycle fatigue

The macrocatalyst could not maintain momentum. The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts were once expected to strengthen risky assets, but have not encouraged sustained gatherings. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, argued that Bitcoin had “a clear indication of cycle fatigue,” with Sharpe ratios being weaker than in 2024, and that institutional risk rewards were less attractive.

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This background encouraged discussions on whether the bull cycle was over. Some analysts emphasize that Altcoins can attract more attention if Bitcoin’s profitability metric remains weak even at higher ratings.

Still, not all voices are bearish. Veteran investor Gary Cardon recently claimed that Bitcoin could surge to $1 million within two years, claiming that assets “break all models.” It remains long-term optimism, but short-term signals are being wary.

Technical outlook for Bitcoin prices

Bitcoin price forecasts for the near term will focus on whether or not they can retain $112,000 in support. Below this level, the next negative side targets will be $111,000 and $109,000, with trendlines and liquidity confluence offering protection. Failing there could be a risk to $107,000.

The advantage is that the resistance is $114,800, followed by $116,000. Above these levels, it will overturn short-term momentum and bring back bullish prospects to over $118,000. Until then, technological structures have pointed to integration with negative risks.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin go up?

Bitcoin prices today reflect a market caught between intense sales pressure and a long-term bullish story. Positioning of on-chain indicators and derivatives shows a decline in confidence, while fluidity-driven drops continue to weigh emotions.

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If buyers are defending $112,000 and spot flow is stable, they can recover to $116,000. Otherwise, the downside risk remains active as analysts warn that the bull cycle could enter a pause. For now, Bitcoin’s trajectory is determined by whether liquidity sweep evolves to a deeper correction or triggers a rebound from key support.