Glassnode data shows that a Bitcoin “death cross” (a technical analysis term that can indicate a bearish signal) is imminent, but there is a catch.
Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average of $110,669 is currently below its 200-day moving average of $110,459, potentially triggering a death cross. This crossover is widely seen as a bearish signal in technical analysis, as it reflects a weakening of short-term momentum compared to the long-term trend.
However, this can also serve as a positive signal.
Bitcoin is currently down about 25% from its October high of about $126,000, and this correction has lasted about 41 days. Despite Death Cross’ reputation, this is the fourth Death Cross outbreak since this cycle began in 2023, with each previous instance coinciding with a major local trough.
Bitcoin bottomed at around $25,000 in September 2023, found support around $49,000 in August 2024 during the unwinding of the yen carry trade, and then bottomed below $75,000 in April 2025 amid uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policy.
In the current setup, Bitcoin has fallen to $94,000, and in all four instances so far, the market has hit lows just before the death cross formed, raising the question whether the same pattern will play out again.
Will it be different this time?
This current drawdown is less severe than the correction in April, when Bitcoin fell below $75,000 during tariff-related turmoil.
April’s correction was deeper and longer than the current correction. Bitcoin has fallen about 30% since January’s high of around $109,000, and trended downward for about 79 days before bottoming out in the first week of April. The current decline is 25% and 41 days, so there is probably still a chance of further decline.
However, the broader environment now includes the end of the US government shutdown on November 12th. The closest comparison is the 2019 government shutdown, where Bitcoin fell over 9% five days after the government reopened on January 25, 2019.
It took about two weeks until February 9, 2019, for Bitcoin to recover.
BTC price trend during US government reopening in 2019 (Tradingview)
This time, Bitcoin has already fallen by 10% since the restart. The question is whether the same pattern will play out again.
