At the end of January, the price lost the $80,000 level, the associated technical support that had previously restrained the decline.
After breaking this level, the price quickly fell to the $75,000 area. This value has not been seen since April 2025. After reaching that bottom, Bitcoin showed a gradual rebound, and as of the publication of this article, Trades above $78,000 againas seen in the following graph.
From technical analysis, a loss of $80,000 strengthens the signal of weak demand. That level worked. As support both the day before and the fix It happened 2 months ago.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, if selling pressure continues, the market could test $74,000 again, and in an even worse scenario, a wider consolidation zone between $49,000 and $73,000 could be triggered before prices cross $80,000 for the first time in November 2024.
The fall in BTC has spread to other virtual currency markets, The futures segment was hit hard.. Around $2.3 billion in liquidations were recorded on leveraged positions bet on crypto assets rising, making it the largest event of its kind since October, when prices fell from their all-time highs.
Historically strong February
The recent decline is in contrast to BTC’s historic move in February. From 2013 to 2025, there were only three Februarys that ended in the red, with declines of 31.03% in 2014, 8.6% in 2020, and 17.39% in 2025. February was a strong month, raising hopes for a possible seasonal recovery.
However, in this situation, seasonality alone may not be enough to reverse the trend. If macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate.
Inflation, interest rates, and trade tensions
The macro outlook is showing negative signs for financial markets, including BTC and cryptocurrencies. Tensions over a potential tariff war between the United States and the European Union have dampened risk appetite.
In addition to this, recent inflation data from the United States Room for Maneuver for the Federal Reserve (FED).
December Product Price Index (PPI) It was 3.0%This exceeded the expected 2.7%. In parallel, core inflation rose to 3.3%, above expectations of 2.9%. These data suggest that production costs are still rising, casting doubt on a sustained slowdown in headline inflation.
Unless inflation shows a clear decline, the Fed will have less room to cut rates. High interest rate scenarios tend to strengthen the dollar and discourage investment in assets considered to be risky, such as BTC and cryptocurrencies.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a recent press conference that the labor market is stable. but, Although inflation has moderated to some extent, it remains at a high level.
Sell pressure and cycle readings
From a market perspective, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju explained that Bitcoin’s decline corresponds to sustained selling pressure and a lack of new capital.
To support his analysis, he shared a graph comparing the price of BTC (gray line) and the P&L Index Signal, an indicator that measures the total level of unrealized gains and losses for investors. Calculated from the relationship between current price and average market acquisition costsmoothed by a 365-day moving average (blue line).
According to their analysis, the capitalization carried out has stagnated, indicating the absence of new capital flows. In that context, A decline in market capitalization does not correspond to a bull market.
Zhu added that early investors have amassed significant unrealized gains through exchange-traded fund (ETF)-related purchases and Strategy’s Accumulation Strategy (ticker MSTR).
Those tickets kept prices close to $100,000 for much of last year, but they have reportedly sold out.
But analysts thought it was unlikely that the stock would fall 70%, as it has in previous cycles, unless Michael Saylor significantly sells his holdings in Strategy. This is because the company is the one with the largest corporate treasury in BTC. The company holds 712,647 BTC, worth approximately $55.91 billion.
In our baseline scenario, a bear market could develop through a broad sideways consolidation rather than a sharp decline.
With February approaching and a mostly positive track record, the market will be watching to see if seasonality will work in Bitcoin’s favor again. However, price movements are influenced by external factors such as the evolution of inflation, the Fed’s interest rate policy, and the impact of global trade tensions.
As long as capital flows do not resume and the macro environment remains under pressure, February’s historic performance may not be enough to reverse the current trend.
(Tag Translate) Bitcoin (BTC)
