While Bitcoin bounce on Tuesday may provide investors with a short break, experts warn that a deeper “cooling-off stage” could work.
The combination of decline in on-chain activity and sustained institutional outflow suggests that after a strong run to record highs, the market could enter a more cautious period.
Data on the chain reveals a significant slowdown in network activity. This coincides with Bitcoin’s recent price pullback. Telegram Channel on tuesday.
The monthly average of changed-adjusted transfers fell 13% from $26.7 billion to $23.2 billion.
This trend continues, and if the metric averages below $21.6 billion a year, it “confirms weakening of speculative activity and indicates a wide contraction of demand,” GlassNode writes.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $111,300. Co Ringecko. It’s down more than 10% from $124,128 from its August 14th high.
The slowdown in Bitcoin coincides with a period of rising sales pressure from long-term holders.
The realised returns from these investors are the second most important compared to previous cycles. This is a “strong signal that the market is in the late stages.” post x.
“It looks like we’re in a cooling-off phase that could last through September,” said Georgii verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder at Defi Platform Tymio. Decryption.
In addition to the rising macroeconomic risks, the outflow of Bitcoin spot exchange funds has exacerbated bullish sentiment, eco-inometrics and crypto macro research newsletter. I wrote it on tuesday.
“As of Friday, our flow-to-price model had an expected price of $107,000. If the outflow continues, there is a risk of it falling below the psychological $100,000 level.”
Tymio’s Verbitskii shares a similar view that the $100,000 target is “on the table” despite its long-term bullish outlook.
Combined with the decline of Bitcoin basics, macroeconomic uncertainty Rate reduction Market analysts are paying attention to expectations.
In particular, September averaged -3.77% over the last 12 years, while the third quarter has historically produced negative returns. Coinglass The data will be displayed.
With the potential for further downsides, Berbitskii warned of opening new long positions at current levels and proposed to adopt a “wait and view” approach.
“Long positions only make sense if you collect and hold more than $118,000.”
