Arthur Hayes’ model predicts Bitcoin to $3 million

The debate over the future prices of Bitcoin (BTC) remains unstoppable. It is currently estimated that digital currency will exceed US$3 million in three years, especially driven by the US economic situation and its impact on large investors.

According to a model created by Arthur Hayes, Exchange Bitmex’s financial and co-founder analyst; BTC could reach $3.4 million in 2028. This is a prediction that starts with the assumption that an increase in US currency printing will boost digital currencies.

However, Hayes himself admits he is skeptical of Bitcoin prices reaching that level, but he estimates the trend is clearly bullish. You will reach a more divided contribution than your current contribution. This is stated:

Do you think Bitcoin will rise to US$3.4 million by 2028? No, but I think it’s much more than 115,000 USD more than the people you quoted today. My goal is to get the right direction for my trip and make sure I’m betting faster on the horse.

Arthur Hayes, financial and co-founder analyst at Exchange Bitmex.

According to analysts, this approach starts with the Donald Trump government scenario They will resort to strong financial expansion to achieve their political objectives. Hayes points out that the Treasury will issue new debts to cover maturities and must lend an estimated deficit of $2 billion per year until 2028. Expert calculations throw a $153.2 billion issue over that period.

Hayes recalled that during the Covid-19 pandemie, the Federal Reserve purchased 40% of the debt issued. Currently, due to the lack of foreign central banks, they are willing to acquire treasured bonds, so we predict this percentage could exceed 50% in three years.

In parallel, he expects commercial bank credit to grow at over $7.5 billion. For reference, see the 2.5 billion increase observed in previous quantitative expansion cycles.

Therefore, the Hayes model adds credit growth of over $15 billion, and if the observed relationships in Covid-19 were applied, the price of Bitcoin increased by 0.19% for each credit created by each dollar. Experts say that BTC will be worth around $3.4 million in 2028.

Suspicious scenarios

Hayes’ prognosis sparked controversy. Spanish financial analyst Javier Espasa Peribáñez explains to the crypto that Bitcoin is unlikely to reach 3 million in 2028. But he ultimately believes that he can “push prices up to record levels.”

These factors include long-term vast monetary policy that cuts down Fíat coins, purchases of BTC institutions through ETFs, and harving that reduces the issuance of new currencies. And then there is a financial crisis that exacerbates trust in the traditional financial system.

These elements add US regulations, in the words of ESPASA. This is also an important factor as it allows for the issuance of stablecoins supported by public debt.

“This will allow the Ministry of Finance to diversify its global debt placement without relying on both China and Japan,” the experts say. Therefore, Tether Limited, the USDT issuer (the largest Stablecoin in the market) coincides with Willy Woo, a professional trader who believes that if BTC reaches $1 million, it will become America’s biggest US debt buyer.

In this scenario, ESPASA analysts consider the near-$1 million rank per BTC around 2028 to be more realisticyet in the context of mid-term retail adoption. In the next cycle, between 2028 and 2032, the consolidation of its adoption will result in higher prices.

However, as seen in the graph below, travel requires a very long journey, as ESPASA states.

Other billionaires forecasts

The potential for Bitcoin exceeding $1 million has already been raised by other referents in the sector. Cathie Wood, executive director of Ark Invest, said that by 2030 there is a shortage of BTC forecasts for 1 million people, and that prices are “widely” above that figure.

In line with the same line, Michael Saylor, president of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), points out that there was a bearish scenario known as “Crypto – Winter.” According to entrepreneurs, digital currencies have natural destinations that are close to $1 million, Cryptoics reports.

Bitcoin’s future estimates are divided into numbers, but are consistent with expectations for growth over the next decade. Generally, The Hayes approach provides extreme references to the projection rangeother experts place more careful scenarios.

However, the analysis reflects how the relationship between financial expansion and digital assets remains the core of Bitcoin’s future.