Bitcoin’s BTC$96,729.76 Ark Invest’s David Puel says the next stage of the market will depend less on whether investors believe in the asset or not, and more on how much exposure they receive and through which means.
Puel, a research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at investor Cathie Wood’s asset management firm, said Bitcoin has crossed a key threshold into institutional maturity following the launch of the Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2024 and the rapid growth of digital asset treasury (DAT) strategies.
“In previous cycles, a lot of infrastructure was still being built,” Puel said. “The question now is not whether to invest in Bitcoin, but how much Bitcoin you want and by what means,” he told CoinDesk in an interview.
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF has quickly become one of the most important drivers of capital inflows into cryptocurrencies since its regulatory approval in early 2024. Together, these products have attracted more than $50 billion in net inflows in about 18 months, highlighting a broader shift to institutionalized and regulated access to Bitcoin without direct self-custody.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) are dominating the flow, driving deeper liquidity and tighter supply, with some estimates suggesting these ETFs collectively manage hundreds of thousands of bitcoins.
This change had a measurable impact on supply and demand. Puel said ETFs and digital asset treasury structures have together absorbed about 12% of Bitcoin’s total supply, much higher than expected, making them one of the biggest drivers of price movement through 2025, and this trend could continue into 2026.
A digital asset treasury company is a publicly traded company whose core strategy is to hold Bitcoin or other digital assets as a primary balance sheet reserve to increase shareholder value.
At the same time, Puel pointed out that there are countervailing forces. Long-term holders who acquired Bitcoin more than a decade ago are increasingly motivated to take profits when the price reaches new highs.
“In a bull market, early adopters will take profits more aggressively toward the upside,” Puel said. “In a bear market, they tend to hold out. In 2025, we had these two big forces, and the early adopters were taking profits, while the institutional investors were buying (via ETFs and DATs).”
Despite these dynamics, Ark remains confident in its long-term evaluation framework. According to the company’s published valuation model, its 2030 Bitcoin price target is expected to be around $300,000 per Bitcoin in the bearish case, nearly $710,000 in the fundamental case, and about $1.5 million in the bullish case.
Puel said digital gold, Bitcoin’s role as a store of value, contributes the most to Ark’s bear and base scenarios, while institutional investments account for the largest share of the upside in the bull scenario.
One supporting factor is that Bitcoin’s supply is becoming increasingly “vaulted.” Puel pointed to on-chain data that shows network utilization has hovered around 60% since early 2018, which Ark interprets as roughly 36% of Bitcoin supply is effectively locked up by long-term holders.
Macro conditions may further support Bitcoin in the coming years. Puel said the end of U.S. monetary tightening could bring new liquidity, which has historically favored risk assets such as Bitcoin.
“For Bitcoin, U.S. liquidity is more important than global M2,” Puel said, noting that other countries often follow the U.S. given its status as the world’s largest capital base.
Another structural change is the change in Bitcoin’s volatility profile. Puel said volatility has fallen to historic lows, supporting Ark’s view that Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns are improving.
“In previous cycles, 30% to 50% drawdowns have been normal during bull markets,” Puel said. “Bitcoin hasn’t experienced a decline of more than about 36% since its 2022 lows, which is unusual.”
Lower volatility and less severe drawdowns could make Bitcoin even more appealing to more conservative investors who were previously deterred by catastrophic risks.
“There are now more sophisticated investors who don’t compound as aggressively on parabolic moves and conserve cash so they can deploy money during drawdowns,” Puel said. “It flattens the volatility and shortens the recovery period.”
Puel also cited regulatory clarity under the Trump administration, the rise of staking-related ETFs, and increased interest at the state level, including Texas, as long-term structural tailwinds. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve won’t create new demand, but it will shore up a strong holder base that is unlikely to be sold, Puel said.
The Arc made a notable adjustment to its outlook. Some of the emerging market safe-haven demand that was once expected to flow into Bitcoin is instead shifting to stablecoins. Puel said the dilution is largely offset by stronger-than-expected interest from gold-related use cases within Ark’s model.
“We keep firing on target,” Puel said. “While the mix of demand is evolving, the long-term theme remains the same.”
Looking beyond 2026, Puel said Ark remains focused on a five-year outlook, rather than short-term price decisions, and argued that Bitcoin’s maturation into a low-volatility, institutionally held asset could eventually become as important as a single price level.
read more: Asset management company Bitwise sees three challenges for the rise of cryptocurrencies in 2026.
