Timechain Index founder Sani reported that 87,464 BTC was leaked from institutionally tagged wallets between November 21 and November 22, adding that he had not seen such activity in recent months.
According to raw data, over 15,000 BTC was outflowed from tracked cohorts on November 21st alone, making it the largest single-day outflow since June 26th.
However, as Sani made clear in his note, the headline numbers exaggerate the actual selling pressure. Most of the moves represent internal restructuring rather than institutions exiting their Bitcoin positions.
Sani explained that pre-processed data can show extreme volatility when large holders move coins between custodians and wallets, but net flows are often close to zero after adjustment.
Strategy accounted for 49,907 BTC of the tracked outflows, but CEO Michael Saylor confirmed that the company did not sell any Bitcoin during the week. In fact, the strategy added 8,178 BTC last week, according to Bitcoin Treasury data.
Sani’s assessment indicates that the strategy transferred its holdings to a new custodian to diversify risk, and some coins appeared in addresses linked to Fidelity custody. Additionally, this is the second time the company has made such a move.
This is not limited to strategy. Sani shared that BlackRock moved Bitcoin from known addresses twice. The first happened last year and the second a few weeks ago, moving around 800,000 BTC to a new address. Additionally, Coinbase also reshuffled similar amounts in its UTXO integration exercise this weekend.
Coming back to the outflows of over 15,000 BTC, the Bitcoin ETF took the brunt on November 21st, with 10,426 BTC outflows as the issuer processed redemptions amounting to $903 million in net withdrawals reported on November 20th.
ETF outflows lead directly to liquidation, as fund managers must sell the underlying Bitcoin to meet shareholder exit requests. Still, the size remained within normal limits given the previous day’s redemption activity.
The Timechain Index tracks 16 entity categories including centralized exchanges, miners, ETFs, public companies, custodians, governments, OTC desks, and payment processors.
The platform aggregates known addresses by cohort and monitors balance changes in real time.
Sani’s “LiveChangessummary” data shows that Strategy’s 49,907 BTC outflow, Coinbase’s 11,762 BTC outflow, and ETC Group’s 6,973 BTC outflow were the biggest moves, with smaller outflows among custodians, exchanges, and miners.
Comparison of daily custody operations and directional bets
This distinction is important because Bitcoin’s on-chain transparency provides visibility into wallet movements before context arrives.
If 87,464 BTC appears to be leaving addresses tracked by financial institutions within 24 hours, that immediate reading could indicate panic selling or an organized withdrawal from crypto exposure.
Post-processing showed the opposite. Even after accounting for internal transfers and standard ETF structure, net institutional holdings remained stable.
The strategy’s custody diversification is consistent with financial management best practices for large holders.
Concentrating approximately 650,000 BTC in a single custodian poses operational risk, and distributing holdings across multiple eligible custodians reduces exposure to a single point of failure.
Bitcoin ETFs operate under various constraints. When an investor redeems their shares, the authorized participant returns the issuing units to the issuing unit, receives the underlying Bitcoin, and sells it on the market to eliminate the arbitrage position.
The $903 million outflow on November 20th was equivalent to approximately 10,400 BTC at the prevailing price and matched the ETF Cohort Outflow Time Chain Index recorded the following day. This lag reflects settlement timing rather than discretionary selling.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
