If next week’s US spending data fails to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates, Bitcoin (BTC) prices may not return to early October highs for a long time.
This assessment was made by Oleg Kalmanovich, an analyst at financial intermediary firm Neomarkets KZ.
Kalmanovich told Russia’s RBC media that all eyes were on October US retail sales figures to be released on November 25th, followed by consumer spending figures to be released on November 26th.
“If the data is lower than expected, the Fed could cut interest rates on December 10th, giving the market a chance to recover. Otherwise, the crypto market will remain under pressure. A full-fledged crypto spring will only materialize in the spring of 2026,” he said.
Vasily Giriya, owner and CEO of Russian mining company GIS Mining, said in an interview with RIA Novosti that current market data shows that demand for Bitcoin is expanding again at $80,600. Girija noted that this demand led to a slight recovery in prices, but cautioned that “it is premature to view this move as the beginning of a sustainable trend reversal.”
According to Girija, the key level for the near-term outlook is $87,000.
“If prices fall below this level before the US stock market opens on Monday, we can say that a long period of stagnation has begun. This will be the beginning of winter for cryptocurrencies.”
The CEO of GIS Mining said Bitcoin needs to return to the $93,000 level by Monday to avoid a cold spell at the end of the year.
“Such a recovery would restore confidence among traders. From a technical perspective, this level of correction depth would be enough to trigger a pullback. The market is currently in wait-and-see mode,” he said.
Meanwhile, Kalmanovic argued that institutional and high-net-worth investors are being forced to rebalance their positions toward the dollar.
“This is reflected in outflows from high-risk assets, including crypto funds.”
*This is not investment advice.
