Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi says: bitcoin price action We are repeating the 2022 cycle pattern, only in reverse. At that time, the United States Federal Reserve System (FED) The interest rate hike caused BTC price to plummet by 63%. Now, with the FED preparing to end quantitative tightening (QT), Chifoi believes the same macro setup could push prices in the opposite direction, potentially setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major rally.
Bitcoin price tracks backwards 2022 cycle pattern.
Chipoi explained X Nov 2 Bitcoin’s behavior on social media appears to be replicating 2022. macroeconomic environment on the other way. He noted that the Bitcoin price was trending near $46,000 in March 2022 when the FED first announced aggressive interest rate hikes. The U.S. central bank made its first two hikes of 50bp and 75bp by June of that year. BTC collapse $17,000 marks the technical bottom of the cycle.
Markets have already absorbed the shock as the FED continues to raise rates from a total of 175bps to 550bps. Chifoi said Bitcoin has made inroads. accumulation phase The rally began despite other market experts calling the central bank’s actions “irresponsible” and belated.
Fast forward to the present and Chifoi believes the cycle is now changing. Recently with the FED Announcement of end to quantitative austerity He predicts that the next three months through December could spark a strong rally. Take Bitcoin to the Top Rather than the floor.
He pointed to the end of December through January 20, 2026 as a key period to watch, suggesting that with liquidity fully restored, the cryptocurrency market could rebound sharply before entering a cooling phase.
Liquidity Spikes and Repo Signals Support Paper
Chifoi supporting his analysis. Referenced A post written by another analyst known as ‘ChurchOfTheCycle’ shared a FRED chart showing the surge. Next day repurchase agreement—Treasury bonds temporarily purchased by the FED through open market operations.
The chart from 2000 to 2025 highlights a sudden and substantial surge in repo activity, suggesting a potential injection of liquidity into the financial system. Analysts say this surge alone market crashHistorically, these increases have typically provided short-term boosts to stocks and cryptocurrencies.
He also said that the FED’s recent actions are related to stress in the financial system and Initial stage of liquidity supportThis could push speculative assets higher.
Based on this, the analyst believes that the market is still enter parabolic phase He will face a major crash in 2026, spanning the period from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. This is a period of approximately 6 to 12 months from the time of the post on November 2nd. As a precautionary measure, he warned traders to monitor credit spreads, repo activity levels and VIX correlations for early signs of liquidity tightening.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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