Bitcoin has largely ignored the deteriorating outlook regarding the Clarity Act, raising the possibility that traders are already pricing in another legislative failure.
data from crypto slate This marks the largest cryptocurrency trading at around $63,500 at the time of writing, above the June 5th level of around $61,900, when Galaxy Digital gave it a 60% chance of passage of the bill this year.
That probability has since dropped to 30% as the Senate ran out of time to advance the crypto market structure bill before adjourning on August 7th. However, Bitcoin did not follow the decline.
Charles Schwab noted that this disconnect suggests that the market may be treating the delay as a baseline rather than a trigger for new bearishness, leaving a waypoint that could produce more meaningful repricing in the opposite direction.
The brokerage described BTC’s current setup as “with a built-in call option and limited legislative downside,” and argued that the bill, if enacted, could reignite hopes for faster institutionalization, even though gradual setbacks in Washington have left markets unable to move.
Senate calendar leaves little room for delay on CLARITY
CLARITY’s path through the Senate is narrowing as the remaining floor time in the House clashes with a crowded list of Republican priorities.
Anne Kelly, former deputy director of the SEC’s Office of Legislative and Intergovernmental Affairs, said that Senate time has become “the most precious commodity in Washington” as the CLARITY Act competes with Russia sanctions, the SAVE Act, appropriations and other bills that occupy limited space on the calendar.
Senate procedures make overcoming this squeeze particularly difficult.
According to Rule XXII, when Congress invokes the closure of a bill, that bill becomes unfinished business “to the exclusion of all other business” until it is disposed of. Post-shutdown consideration could take up to 30 hours unless senators agree to speed up the process.
Kelly said that pushing one major bill would therefore come at the expense of consideration time for another bill. Even if Senate leaders moved to CLARITY immediately, a series of cloture votes, amendments, and debates would make it difficult to pass before adjournment without unanimous agreement to waive procedural time.
Scheduling pressures further complicate unresolved disputes over government ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance and stablecoin rewards, leaving lawmakers with little room for the next round of negotiations.
However, Bitcoin has shown limited susceptibility to that deterioration.
Schwab’s multivariate analysis, in a model that also included the Nasdaq 100, US Treasury yields, oil, inflation breakeven, the dollar, and crypto liquidations, found that changes in CLARITY passage odds accounted for an average of 4.3% of Bitcoin’s daily price change.
Excluding liquidations, which Schwab characterizes as an amplifying factor rather than an underlying price factor, CLARITY’s contribution rose to 8%. Nasdaq-related risk appetite accounted for 20.5%, while 60.2% of Bitcoin’s daily movements remained unexplained by legislative and macro variables in the reduced model.
These findings indicate that BTC traders place little weight on incremental changes in legislative probabilities until legislators are close to the final outcome.
Still, the weak relationship makes it difficult to argue that further delays will automatically cause a significant Bitcoin decline. The repricing risk could be even greater if Senate leaders unexpectedly find the votes and deliberation time to pass the bill.
Passage could revive institutional trading
CLARITY A slow reaction to changes in odds does not necessarily mean that the actual passage will be equally uneventful.
Schwab distinguishes between traders who react to gradual political developments and institutions who react after the federal market structure framework is enacted into law.
Passage of the CLARITY Act could reduce regulatory uncertainty for financial firms considering offering a broader range of digital assets, creating a catalyst that daily changes in prediction market odds have eluded, the company said.
The brokerage cited April as an example of how institutional narratives can quickly strengthen.
Bitcoin rose from about $66,000 to $82,000, or about 25%, at the beginning of the month as major financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley expanded their spot cryptocurrency offerings.
In fact, the US Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund recorded net inflows of $1.97 billion this month, the highest monthly total in 2026. BlackRock’s IBIT alone has raised about $2 billion, while Morgan Stanley’s MSBT has added a new channel to institutional demand.
This overlap does not prove that institutional launches or ETF inflows caused the rally. During this period, Bitcoin has been exposed to other market forces, and Schwab’s own regression analysis shows that most of the day-to-day fluctuations cannot be explained by the factors examined.
Still, this episode supports Schwab’s argument that passage itself can have market effects other than simply increasing the likelihood that Congress will ultimately act.
Some institutional forecasters are already placing considerable value on that possibility.
FM Intelligence’s bullish scenario assumes Bitcoin’s price will be between $135,000 and $200,000 over the next year, with a 25% probability, and part of the condition is that CLARITY will be implemented by the November midterm elections. Base cases are significantly lower at $95,000 to $130,000.
Asset management firm Grayscale made a similar argument, arguing that Bitcoin may already be nearing a bear market low and that the passage of the Clarity Act this year could create a new wave of institutional demand across the cryptocurrency industry.
These views highlight the difference between markets that have largely absorbed months of legal uncertainty and those that have yet to assess the impact of the regulatory framework that has been enacted.
Further delays would prolong the political impasse that has so far failed to cause a comparable decline in Bitcoin. But passage could change the calculus for traditional financial companies by providing greater regulatory certainty when it comes to expanding their digital asset businesses.
As the Senate deadline approaches, Schwab sees this as an asymmetry. Investors have had weeks to adjust to worsening expectations, while the market is yet to test what the unexpected legislative breakthrough will mean for institutional investors.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
