SpaceX stock fell to $119.79 after seven consecutive losing sessions, sending SPCX 11% below its IPO price of $135 ahead of Tesla’s second-quarter earnings and new Starship launch attempt.
TradingView’s hourly chart shows SPCX nearing the lower end of a descending channel, which has pushed the stock down from around $170 in early July. The stock closed 0.93% lower in the latest session on the chart after trading between $119.69 and $121.03.
SPCX rose about 1.6% before the opening bell on Monday, but the gains disappeared during regular trading as sellers extended the decline in the stock. Their stock price closed below $120 on Monday, about 47% below the post-IPO high of more than $225 reached in June. SpaceX’s investor information page had the stock sitting around $122.50 at the start of trading Monday.
Currently, all eyes are on Tesla, which will announce its financial results for the period from April to June after the market closes on July 22nd. Tesla’s Investor Relations department announced that management will host an earnings webcast that same day at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Tesla’s own analyst consensus calls for quarterly revenue of $27.58 billion and net income attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.28 billion. The electric vehicle maker said this estimate follows production of 451,758 vehicles and deliveries of 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter.
Speculation about a merger between Tesla and SpaceX makes this report more relevant for SPCX investors. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said a potential deal appears “strategically coherent on paper” given the companies’ shared leadership and overlap in activities.
JPMorgan has identified potential connections across artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, transportation and space. The bank also noted that while Elon Musk will lead both companies, the engineering resources and long-term technology plans of both companies could support operational cooperation. However, JPMorgan presented the deal as a potential strategic fit rather than a firm negotiation.
Descending channel keeps pressure on SPCX
On the hourly chart, SPCX remains within a parallel descending channel formed through a series of falling highs and falling lows. According to TradingView data, the lower bound of the channel is set around $118 to $120, making this range the first technical level to watch after the stock drops below $123.
A rebound from the channel bottom will initially focus on the upper bound near $125. Based on the chart structure, a confirmed move above that line could break out of the immediate pattern and begin a recovery toward the $135 IPO price, which turned from support to resistance following last week’s decline.
Failure to hold $118 would instead result in an extended channel breakdown that would remove the most clearly visible support on the hourly timeframe. In this scenario, the chart leaves the psychological $100 level as the next major downside area, but the price needs to confirm a close below the channel before that target becomes active.
Chaikin Money Flow’s -0.13 reading still shows selling pressure. A value below zero means that the indicator has recorded more distributions than accumulations during the 20 period window, and there is limited evidence that buyers are in the lead at the current price.
At the same time, the average directional index is 31.72. An ADX reading above 25 usually signals trend development, so this indicator shows that SPCX’s existing downtrend is still holding strength even though the stock is testing the lower bound of the channel.
ARK Invest continues to buy even on the decline. As reported by crypto.news, Cathie Wood’s company bought 147,805 shares of SpaceX stock worth more than $18 million on July 17, splitting the position among four exchange-traded funds. The purchase comes after a nearly 15% drop in the week, sending SPCX below its offering price. Investors Business Daily
According to Barchart data, retail traders bought approximately $320 million in SPCX stock during July, making SpaceX the most popular U.S. stock among retail investors during the measured period. Demand for the listing so far has also been strong, with crypto.news reporting that retail orders exceeded $70 billion before the IPO in June.
A meeting with the Pentagon and a Starship test triggered the move.
The company’s business development could compete with Tesla’s performance, which attracts attention from investors. According to Reuters, SpaceX is in talks to award a contract to the U.S. Department of Defense.The company reportedly plans to modify the vehicle’s propulsion system and carry 20 Starlink satellites during testing.
With SPCX sitting at the bottom of a descending channel, the TradingView chart has $118 support and $125 resistance as the immediate boundaries, with Tesla earnings, Pentagon negotiations, and Thursday’s Starship test being the three event-driven catalysts.
