A $1,000 Bitcoin purchase made this time last year, when Bitcoin was above $120,000, is now worth $520. In this case, the investor would suffer a loss of 47.98% and would require a rebound of 92.2% before fees.
According to Bitcoin market data from igcurrencynews, the price is $64,073 at the time of writing.
The July 2025 milestone exceeded $120,000 for the first time, reaching a record high of $123,165. It then reached an all-time high of $126,198 on October 6, 2025.
The first pressure point is much lower than either record. A rebound towards the anniversary entry could exceed the two on-chain cost bases, and other investors could sell as losses narrow.
Initial payback test will occur before reaching $100,000
Glassnode’s Week 27 survey shows recent buyers’ total breakeven short-term holder cost basis close to $72,200. This puts the true market average, a broad cost-based measure for active investors, at nearly $76,600. Bitcoin had been trading below both indexes for about five months.
The combined numbers for these benchmarks represent a cohort average and indicate where more investors are likely to return to breakeven. Individual entry prices and sell orders are different.
| checkpoint | required gain | Type of level | What you can test |
|---|---|---|---|
| $72,200 | 12.7% | short-term holder cost basis | Demand increases as recent buyers return to total breakeven |
| $76,600 | 19.6% | true market average | Demand increases as broader active markets recover towards total break-even |
| $100,000 | 56.1% | psychological threshold | Whether recovery has significantly exceeded the initial cost-based checkpoint |
| $123,165 | 92.2% | Anniversary entry for July 2025 | Whether the milestone is complete before the buyer pays the fee |
The two closest cost bases reduce losses for anniversary buyers while giving other holders a chance to exit early.
Some people may continue to hold the stock even after profits recover. Some people may have less exposure after spending months in the water. The strength of demand at those points in time determines whether potential supply is absorbed.
Glassnode’s July 13 update stated that Bitcoin’s move towards $64,000 lacks widespread confidence due to weak spot participation and on-chain activity. By July 15, the company said the decline for long-term holders was calming and buyers had absorbed June’s lows, but said the bottom was still in the works.
The two updates represent incremental improvements. Stronger demand is still needed to clear the first two cost bases. At $72,200 and $76,600, the question is how much selling potential emerges and whether buyers will absorb it.
Anniversary buyers are still far from perfect
Even if Bitcoin regains the psychological landmark of $100,000, it will remain well below its July 2025 price. The recovery ladder separates two questions: whether the market can recoup the cost base of recent participants, and whether near-record buyers in 2025 can recover the full amount of their losses.
Glassnode also remained exposed to downside risk. The July 8 report stated that a lower price band around the realized price of $53,000 is still possible. Glassnode offered $53,000 in residual risk and continued to explain that the bottom price was unconfirmed.
Bitcoin needs to regain two lower cost bases before $100,000 or $123,165 becomes meaningful. A stronger recovery therefore depends on whether demand first absorbs the potential risk around $72,200 and then around $76,600.
Until both checkpoints are regained through broader participation, anniversary buyers will face holders who can exit sooner.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
