Ethereum’s 50-week moving average has fallen below its 200-week average, forming a “death cross”. This is considered a long-term bearish indicator. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has failed to break out of the $64,000-$65,000 resistance area and is struggling to break above $62,000. These patterns matter to individual investors who flocked to cryptocurrencies through exchange-traded funds and are now trading in the red.
Bitcoin prices have fallen about 2% over the past 24 hours, hovering around the low $62,000 range. However, it has rebounded from below $58,000, a 21-month low. Ethereum is trading below $1,750, which is down nearly 4% from the previous day and about 30% lower than its price a year ago. All other altcoins followed suit. The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin and Ether, has fallen 30% since January.
Ether technical warning
Deathcross is a major technical event. On-chain data shows that Ether’s 50-week exponential moving average is below its 200-week exponential moving average. This previously allowed us to avoid such movements during all downturns. Prediction market traders expect the bearish trend to continue. There appears to be a 72.3% chance that Ether will reach $1,500 before rising to $3,000. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index stands at 26, indicating “extreme fear” among investors.
The outflow of crypto ETFs presents the clearest statistic of destruction. U.S. Bitcoin outflows reached nearly $1.79 billion in the week ending June 26, and opinions differ on how bad the performance was. This was one of the worst weeks for Bitcoin ETFs since their introduction in January 2024, according to the data. This $1.79 billion outflow was found to be equal to the second-largest week on record, behind the $2.61 billion outflow in late February 2025.
Nevertheless, this streak is the group’s longest to date. There has already been a seven-week streak of outflows, according to SoSoValue data, which began in mid-May and surpassed the previous two five-week streaks.
ETF investors fall into the water
These ETF outflows tell the retail story. The typical IBIT investor is currently losing nearly 40%. This is in contrast to the typical IBIT investor, who is around 30% profitable as of mid-2025. IBIT has recorded inflows of $60.26 billion, but its net worth is now $44.42 billion as Bitcoin prices have fallen more than 23% in the past 60 days.
The situation was equally dire for the Spot Ether fund, which lost $273.34 million during the same period, marking its seventh consecutive week of outflows.
There is one bright piece of news as Bitcoin ETF’s 10-day streak of $2.7 billion in outflows has come to an end. The selling was consistent with the Fed’s hawkish stance. Although the Fed held interest rates unchanged at its June 18 meeting and removed the word “easing” from its statement, the probability of a rate hike in December now exceeds 50%.
This pessimism may be overstated, given that every Bitcoin bear cycle since 2009 ended with the start of extreme fear, and the next halving, when new Bitcoin production is cut in half, is expected to occur in about 21 months. This time, there are additional factors that offset the bear market. It is the presence of institutional investors in the form of spot ETFs, corporate balance sheets, and legal frameworks for digital assets. This did not exist in previous cycles.
