- CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s 10% rebound from last week’s lows of $57,700 to around $63,000 is still a bear market recovery and not a definite reversal.
- Demand improves after 30-day total Bitcoin demand fell by around 650,000 coins $BTC Meanwhile, Coinbase Premium has recovered to -0.062.
- The Bullscore index remains at 20, well below the 60 level that cryptoquant needs to confirm a sustained rally and trend reversal.
Bitcoin’s recent rally has improved the situation, but CryptoQuant says the move still looks more like a bear market recovery than a true trend reversal. $BTC It traded around $63,000, up about 10% from last week’s lows near $57,700, and regained support at $60,000. This recovery has been fueled by the seasonality of July, a month that has historically produced better results even in bear market years. still, Recovery is not yet a change of government.That’s because the company’s broader metrics remain defensive rather than bullish.
Bitcoin tends to rise in July even in bear markets.
In 2018 and 2022, $BTC Despite weaker overall trends, July saw increases of +20% and +17%.
Bitcoin just entered July this year from a bear market low of $57,700, and short-term risks are biased toward further upside due to seasonality. pic.twitter.com/VQuNbfzL7L
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 8, 2026
Demand improves but bullish signals remain weak
CryptoQuant’s short-term problems start with demand. The 30-day Bitcoin aggregate demand measure, which combines spot and perpetual futures trading, has rebounded from its sharpest contraction since 2022, after falling by about $650,000. $BTC In early June. Currently, the indicator is close to neutral. Speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, but spot demand is contracting at its slowest pace since mid-May. The demand engine is close to restartingHowever, CryptoQuant said it needs to return to positive territory to confirm actual ignition.
Investor appetite in the US is also less negative than before. The Coinbase Premium Index, used as a proxy for U.S. spot demand, has rebounded to -0.062 from deep negative levels in early June as Bitcoin recovers from its lows. This suggests that selling pressure on U.S. exchanges may be easing and demand from institutional investors may be stabilizing. CryptoQuant also points to undervaluation, with traders’ unrealized gains falling below -24% in early June, well below the company’s undervaluation threshold of -12%. A local support base may have formed as short-term holders surrendered.which explains why there is room for the rebound to grow.
The caveat is that none of these are confirmed market shifts yet. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, which combines on-chain, market, and valuation metrics, is 20, well within bearish territory and well below the 60 level the company needs to support sustained upside. A historic uptrend in July could support sentiment, including around 20% in 2018 and 17% in 2022. but Seasonality can cause prices to rise without changing the cycle.Bitcoin’s rally is encouraging and tactical, but remains vulnerable until demand and broader market strength are confirmed. So far, this recovery looks beneficial, but the burden of proof remains on buyers who are now looking to turn improved demand into a sustained recovery rather than another bear market rally across the market.
