Bitcoin investors are facing unrealized losses of about 20% on average, while a key on-chain cost metric has risen to about $76,700, creating a resistance level that analysts say is weighing on the market.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s true market mean (TMM) is currently near $76,700, and this level represents the average acquisition cost for active Bitcoin holders rather than the total supply of Bitcoin. This metric excludes coins that have been dormant for long periods of time or are partially lost, and provides a measure of the cost basis for actively traded Bitcoins.
Dirkforst said a similar situation occurred in May when Bitcoin approached the same price range and TMM became a key resistance as many investors chose to sell at breakeven rather than continue holding.
At the same time, Bitcoin ($BTC) is trading at $62,596 at press time on July 4th, up 1.67% over the past 24 hours, but remains well below TMM levels, with much of its active investor base underwater.
Active holder cost base remains above market price
In parallel with TMM, Darkhost investigated the Active Value to Investor Value (AVIV) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value and the cost base of active holders. According to the analyst, this ratio is hovering around 0.8, putting Bitcoin in what he calls the valuation discount zone.
Based on AVIV measurements, Darkhost estimated that active Bitcoin investors currently have unrealized losses of around 20% on average.
Historical data shared by analysts shows that past bear market bottoms have pushed the AVIV ratio down to around 0.5-0.6, which is equivalent to a 40-50% loss for the average investor. Although the current situation shows widespread losses, the market has not yet reached such historical extremes, Dirkforst said.
Still, analysts argued that Bitcoin may not need to revisit such deeply discounted levels before recovering, especially as Bitcoin has attracted stronger adoption in the current market cycle.
However, he said institutional participation has not changed Bitcoin’s long-term cyclical behavior and that investors should remain cautious despite continued capital inflows in recent years.
Institutional investor demand faces new challenges
This on-chain assessment comes after CryptoQuant separately reported that Bitcoin’s next big rally could require more than $1 trillion in additional capital due to Bitcoin’s much larger market value.
According to the firm’s research, approximately $697 billion has flowed into Bitcoin since 2022, generating a return of approximately 689%, which is a small return compared to earlier market cycles despite large inflows.
Institutional demand has also softened in recent weeks as U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded continued net outflows, raising questions about whether new capital will return quickly enough to support further gains.
However, corporate adoption continues to grow. Strategy, the largest publicly traded company with over 847,000 Bitcoin holders $BTCis looking at ways to create liquidity without selling its holdings. Galaxy Digital said the company has the potential to earn recurring income through conservative lending and option-based strategies while maintaining long-term Bitcoin positions.
Beyond corporate finance, blockchain infrastructure is also gaining attention from companies developing artificial intelligence systems. Industry players argue that blockchain-based payment systems and stablecoins are emerging as a potential basis for machine-to-machine transactions, although autonomous AI agents will likely require programmable payment networks and large-scale adoption is still expected to take several years.
