On Friday, July 3rd, Bitcoin ($BTC) managed to challenge the $63,000 level, but was unable to surpass it. The rebound from $58,500 at the beginning of the month looks set to continue.
According to AMBCrypto, overleveraged short positions were caught off guard by the move. Bitcoin alone has recorded $143 million in short-term liquidations so far this month.
The large spot ETF outflows indicate that most of the weak hands may have left the market, and the recent move could be a bullish reversal rather than just a short squeeze.
overhead $BTC Supply puts a cap on any recovery effort
The 4-hour chart revealed a bearish price structure. $BTC At press time.
However, based on the Fibonacci retracement level, a rebound to $65.2,000 is possible.
When zoomed out, the cost basis distribution graph shows a significant amount of $BTC Obtained. There was also a lot of supply at the $72.3,000 and $77.2,000 levels.
This suggests that in a significant rebound scenario, underwater holders who acquired Bitcoin at these price levels could exit the market at breakeven. A big wave of selling will impact short-term upside momentum.
Signs of future Bitcoin volatility
Long-term holder MVRV compares the current market price to the total cost basis of holders that have been held in the past. $BTC More than 155 days. If the MVRV of this long-term holder cohort falls below 1, it means that even these market participants may be in less profitable positions on average.
Significant price corrections and LTH despair have occurred every Bitcoin cycle thus far. However, even in 2026, LTH MVRV is still not below 1. At the time of this writing, the reading was 1.26.
In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, XWIN Japan said: $BTC Inflows to exchanges will begin towards the end of June. This trend applies not only to Ethereum but also to the altcoin sector as a whole.
The large inflows indicate that capital is flowing throughout the crypto sector, not just a few select assets.
Factors such as significant negative ETF flows, a drop in apparent demand, and a negative Coinbase Premium Index suggested a lack of buying pressure in the market.
Taking into account the liquidity situation, a decisive price change may occur soon.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s price structure is bearish and could see a rebound between $65,000 and $67,000 in the short term.
- Long-term market bottoms tend to be marked by capitulation, and a decisive price move may be imminent.
