Although June’s salary announcements did not yield significant results, traders are reading this as a trigger for Bitcoin’s much-needed rate cut. The number of employees increased by only 57,000, compared to the expected increase of 110,000.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported a total decrease of 74,000 jobs over the past two months, with a decrease of 31,000 in April and 43,000 in May. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% and wages remained at 3.5% from a year earlier, giving the still hawkish Fed some leeway to pass on any weak results.
Although the unemployment rate itself seems high, the same report shows that the labor force participation rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%.
As the labor force has shrunk, the unemployment rate has been less easily reduced, and reports have been mixed.
| June labor market indicators | result | market reading | Impact of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of non-farm employees | +57,000 vs. +110,000 Estimated | Obvious growth slowdown | Supports interest rate cut expectations |
| 2 month revision | -74K | Previous strength is exaggerated | Strengthen liquidity relief trade |
| unemployment rate | 4.2% vs. 4.3%. | The labor market has not collapsed | Give the Fed cover and wait |
| wage growth | +3.5% YoY | still solid | Limit dovish readings |
| labor participation | 61.5%, 0.3 point decrease | The decline in the unemployment rate is not so pretty | Keeps macro signals ambiguous |
For Bitcoin to rally, the economy needs to become soft enough to ease liquidity expectations and calm enough to maintain risk appetite.
Iggy Ioppe, Theo’s chief investment officer, called the setup a trap in a memo.
“The failure of the employment report indicates that growth is wavering and will inevitably lead to another round of price cuts. That’s the trap.”
He argues that with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, a hawkish Fed can provide all the cover it needs to confirm one weak payroll report. Traders betting on a bailout may be moving faster than the Fed.
He added that real yields remain high and assets in need of a dovish turn remain heavy throughout the quarter.
Ioppe said that while thin liquidity during the holiday season could amplify volatility, delta-neutral positioning is less dependent on either Fed rate cuts or Bitcoin’s rising direction.
The FOMC kept its target range at 3.50-3.75% at its June 17 meeting, saying inflation remained elevated compared to its 2% target. The dot plot for June shows that officials’ forecasts ranged around and beyond the current range.
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Signum Bank, added filters to read what’s next.
“Soft content will quickly reduce rate hike pressure and we’ll see that in another hike before the headlines subside, but weak data doesn’t automatically turn bullish.”
The first is whether the Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, will react to the labor data. His Fed is more concerned with inflation credibility, and a central bank still focused on price stability may not be swayed by a single soft report.
The second is how weak it is. Weak but orderly numbers support a liquidity relief trade, and if the numbers are weak enough to indicate real growth problems, risk assets could fall even as rate cut odds rise.
Dori added that Fed policy is just one part of the liquidity picture, along with Treasury cash balances, eSLR reform, and stablecoin implementation.
The U.S. stock market will be closed on July 3 for Independence Day, and CME’s unique holiday schedule will thin out trading hours for large contracts in preparation for the big weekend.
As cryptocurrencies continue to trade straight, BTC can move in line with macro headlines while the rest of the risk market is mostly idle. Mr. Dori expects either instinct to prevail in a flimsy deal will be exaggerated.
price recovery
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, points out how macro debates can influence prices.
He said that Bitcoin had been pricing in the jobs report even before the announcement was made, and that Bitcoin had rallied to recent lows around $57,000 before breaking through the $60,000-$61,000 resistance zone.
BTC hit an intraday high of $62,056 and traded near the retaken $60,000 to $61,000 zone, maintaining breakout arguments without confirming a solid break above resistance.
The next level Mena is eyeing is $65,000, and if this momentum holds, a breakout there would pave the way for $75,000 by the end of the month.
July has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with an average return of about 7.4% and an increase in nine of the past 13 years. Mena says $100,000 is within reach if the setup is extended through the end of the year and technical, seasonal and macro factors continue to align.
| BTC level | Role in setup | what does it inform |
|---|---|---|
| $57,000 | Recent flash areas cited by Mena | Failure zone if salary increases slow down |
| $60,000 – $61,000 | Restored resistance zone | The bull needs to hold to maintain control. |
| $62,056 | Intraday high prices cited in the article | Indicates that BTC has temporarily surpassed the recovery zone |
| $65,000 | Next confirmation level | Breakout will validate post-payroll momentum |
| $75,000 | Month-end upward path | Securing sustainable liquidity and risk appetite are necessary |
| $100,000 | Year-end bullish scenario | Macro, technical and seasonality are needed to continue the adjustment |
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The bullish case is for an orderly deceleration path. Although the salary statistics declined and the revised figures were negative, the unemployment rate and wages avoided a situation resembling a full-fledged economic downturn.
The Fed remains willing to cut interest rates going forward and is waiting to see what the market will say. Under that path, Bitcoin maintains the $60,000-$61,000 zone, tests $65,000, and holds Mena’s July target of $75,000.
The bear incident is Iggy’s price gouging trap in full effect. The Federal Reserve considers unpaid wages to be a noise second only to the 4.2% unemployment rate, and is keeping real yields unchanged after scrutinizing the entire situation.
The rally subsides, $60,000 turns into a battlefield, and the $57,000 flash zone comes back into view.
The next few sessions will test whether Bitcoin can maintain easing price liquidity as the market thins due to the holidays, without the Fed saying anything. A payroll error could send BTC higher for a few sessions on its own, but a more sustained move would likely require confirmation from Fed policy and broader liquidity conditions.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
