Seasonal patterns are usually reversed. Throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, the fourth quarter has been the strongest by a wide margin, with an average gain of 77% and a median of nearly 48%, a period that has seen it bounce back after a mediocre year.
The third quarter is the opposite, on average the weakest quarter and often flat. In other words, the calendar would typically see a quiet third quarter and a strong fourth quarter. In 2018 and 2022, that seasonal strength was lost. The bear market upended the calendar, and what would normally be the best fourth quarter turned into one of the worst.
Two samples may tell you little, but both years focused on specific collapses that today have no equivalent. This comparison doesn’t mean that 2026 has to be the next in 2018 or 2022, but it does mean that Bitcoin has only started the year this weakly once before, and that weakness was a sign of something structural rather than a temporary decline.
Whether 2026 falls into that category depends on what’s driving sales, and those factors appear to be more struggling than panic.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has seen record outflows over the past month, on-chain active user numbers remain near the low end of its range, funds are steadily being funneled into AI stocks, and it just posted its best quarter in years as the cryptocurrency tumbles.
