A new framework from asset management firm VanEck draws a clear line between Bitcoin miners that are truly transforming into artificial intelligence infrastructure providers and those that are still selling a story. All of this comes at a steep price. There is a near-term funding gap of approximately $50 billion between pipeline targets and actual deliveries in this area.
In a research note, VanEck investment analyst Griffin McMaster and head of digital asset research Matthew Siegel outlined what they describe as the first structured valuation approach to an increasingly nebulous category of companies that spans both Bitcoin mining and AI data center hosting.
Because financial disclosures vary widely by sector and cash flow is still in its infancy, VanEck argues that the cleanest metric available to investors right now is gross powered power, or how many megawatts of electricity a company actually puts in, not just what it says it does.
The gap between these two is already telling. Companies with physical leases, such as Cipher Mining (CIFR), Hut 8 (HUT), and TeraWulf (WULF), are valued at more than 10 times their total energized power.
Meanwhile, companies like Marathon Digital (MARA) and CleanSpark (CLSK), which are more closely tied to Bitcoin mining due to their limited contracted AI capabilities, trade at just 2-6x the same metric.
“For now, we find that the market is paying for contracted power capacity while discounting anything still in the pipeline,” the analysts wrote.
Van Eck cautions that signing the contract is just the beginning. Across the peer group, miners are only supplying about 25% of leased capacity, but the company expects this figure to decline further before improving as major construction projects begin in 2027 and 2028.
This execution gap is expected to be a key factor in future valuations, with companies that miss construction milestones at risk of what Van Eck calls a “structural downgrade.”
Analysts also note that few of these companies have experience building the kind of infrastructure that AI customers need, making project management credentials as important as megawatts.
VanEck’s deal tracker suggests a busy second half of 2026, with multiple companies in various stages of active or advanced lease negotiations, including Bitdeer (BTDR), HIVE Digital (HIVE), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Core Scientific (CORZ). WULF is said to be in “advanced negotiations” for a 480MW site in Kentucky and expects to win a customer in the second quarter.
A $221 billion building, and who can pay for it?
The capital required for this pivot is staggering. VanEck estimates that the sector’s long-term capital investment needs amount to $221 billion, and short-term needs alone create a total funding shortfall of approximately $50 billion above current cash positions.
Within-group variance is wide. HIVE faces the most severe strain relative to its market capitalization due to its AI Gigafactory ambitions of over 100,000 GPUs. IREN and KEEL bear the next heaviest load in the short term. In contrast, WULF and CIFR appear to be in a relatively favorable position as they already have anchor agreements in place to reduce the risk of raising capital.
Funding routes vary widely. Companies holding Bitcoin government bonds — including MARA (35,303 $BTC), CLSK (13,561 $BTC), HUT (13,696 $BTC) — You can rely on Bitcoin monetization strategies for some of your construction funds.
REN has large financial needs in the short term, but $BTC The Treasury now faces a narrower choice to raise funds: issuing dilutive stock or increasing debt.
Van Eck: Bitcoin exposure is overstated
The report also questions how closely the market ties the entire cohort to Bitcoin price. The group’s average daily return correlation is $BTC With a year-to-date average of around 0.55 and a one-year average beta of around 1.05, Van Eck argues that for companies that have largely moved on, the sector’s true Bitcoin sensitivity is dynamically overestimated.
MARA only (with) $BTC– Sensitive values corresponding to approximately 98% of market capitalization), CLSK (approximately 53%), and RIOT (approximately 23%) whose balance sheets have a significant impact on Bitcoin price fluctuations. At the other end, CORZ, WULF, APLD, and IREN were effectively separated.
The analysis shows that if Bitcoin falls to $50,000, about 45% of MARA’s stock value and nearly 50% of HIVE’s stock value will disappear, while HUT’s value will be shaved off by only 4%. $BTC The ‘Trade’ framework captures the increasingly diverse nature of the group.
VanEck expects valuations to eventually move from megawatts to delivery rates, unit economics, and ultimately discounted cash flow models. At that point, these companies will start to look more like data center REITs than miners.
The company expects that as AI revenues mature, many may eventually be sold or converted into REITs.
At this time, VanEck sees the stocks with the largest gap between ambition and current market price (HIVE, KEEL, IREN, Bitdeer) as most likely to be rerated, but also recognizes that these stocks carry the highest execution risk. Companies that already have anchor trades, such as WULF, CIFR, and HUT, offer a more conservative way to link their advantages to long-term market positions.
The post VanEck: Bitcoin miners face $50 billion funding shortfall as AI pivot separates winners from losers appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Micah Zimmerman.
