Bitcoin has seen a notable recovery over the past few days after a sharp correction pushed the asset toward a key demand zone around $60,000.
This rebound appears to have been fueled in part by improved macro sentiment following the preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran, which significantly reduced geopolitical uncertainty and increased risk appetite across global markets.
The easing of tensions triggered a broad rally in risk assets, supporting Bitcoin’s recovery from recent lows.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
In the daily time frame, $BTC Despite the recent rebound from the $60,000 psychological support zone, it remains within a broad correction structure.
The sector has once again attracted significant demand, generated a strong response, and recent transactions have allowed buyers to regain some control. However, Bitcoin is currently approaching its first significant resistance cluster around $65,000 to $67,000. This resistance cluster acted as support until it turned into supply after the collapse.
While the current recovery appears to be constructive, the broader structure remains bearish in the short term. $BTC It has fallen below the broken channel and continues to trade below the key resistance area around $72,000 to $74,000. As a result, the ongoing move could still be interpreted as a bailout rally unless buyers manage to regain higher supply levels.
If Bitcoin faces rejection from the current $65,000 to $67,000 supply zone, a further corrective move towards the $62,000 support area remains a realistic scenario. Conversely, a successful breakout above this area would expose the next resistance zone around $72,000-$74,000.
$BTC/USDT 4 hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin steadily recovering from its recent bottom near $60,000, forming an ascending wedge/flag pattern as it rises from the lower end of the demand zone.
The recent surge has pushed the asset directly into the initial supply zone between approximately $65,500 and $68,000. This area is the most important short-term obstacle for the bulls, as it coincides with the previous consolidation range that ultimately triggered a sharp breakdown.
Although momentum has improved significantly following geopolitical developments, the market is now testing areas where sellers may try to regain control. A rejection from the current supply zone could lead to wedge support and potentially a decline into the $62,000-$63,000 area.
If buyers manage to absorb the supply and establish acceptance above $68,000, the chances of a deeper recovery towards the higher resistance cluster around $72,000-74,000 will increase significantly. Until then, prices remain vulnerable to short-term retracement after recent impulsive moves.
On-chain analysis
The UTXO Age Bands Realized Price chart provides an interesting insight into investor positioning during the recent correction.
Bitcoin is currently trading below the realized price of the 1-3 million holding layer, which is located around $75,000, but is still above the realized price of the 18-2 million year holder, which is around $74,000. These levels often serve as important psychological zones because they represent the average cost of acquisition for different groups of market participants.
The recent decline below cost basis for short-term holders suggests that many new investors are now carrying unrealized losses, a situation that typically weighs on market sentiment during corrections.
The continued upward trend in both realized price cohorts also suggests that capital has actively entered the market through previous forays. While this does not exclude the possibility of further downside volatility, it supports the view that the current stage is more akin to a correction within a larger cycle than a complete reversal of the trend.
For now, on-chain data remains constructive, but from a technical perspective, Bitcoin is approaching a significant resistance area where the recent bailout rally could face its first meaningful challenge. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the market briefly fell from the $65,000-$68,000 area before attempting a larger recovery.
