Bitcoin prices rose to a two-week high on Monday as a ceasefire between the US and Iran removed one of the market’s most persistent macro overhangs, and crypto stocks soared ahead of what traders say is the real test this week: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin prices rose 4% in 24 hours to trade around $67,000 after Iran confirmed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Prices broke through the $64,000 resistance level amid thin liquidity over the weekend and held there by the start of New York trading on Monday.
But Nansen research analyst Nikolaj Sondergaard cautions against reading too much into this headline.
“Bitcoin rose to $66,000 on thin liquidity over the weekend on news of the cease-fire, but traders who have already come under fire twice this year have not yet been fully redeployed,” he wrote. bitcoin magazine. “The April agreement collapsed and a US attack broke the truce for a second time on June 9th, with Bitcoin returning the full bailout in both cases. Markets are treating Switzerland’s June 19th as a real timestamp, not a Sunday headline.”
strategy buy again
Strategy (MSTR) revealed a new 8-K on Monday, showing it won 1,587 $BTC From June 8th to June 14th, the company acquired approximately $100 million in stock through a public market offering program, bringing its total holdings to 846,842 shares. $BTC.
The stock price rose more than 9% on the news, with intraday trading volume reaching 16.84 million shares.
Strive (ASST), the Bitcoin treasury firm chaired by Vivek Ramaswamy, rose nearly 16% to $17.50, continuing its recovery from a three-month low of $9.00 in early April. Other stocks such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle all rose more than 5%.
The rise in cryptocurrency stocks reflects what DoubleZero co-founder Austin Federa has observed on the ground.
“Institutions love cryptocurrencies,” Federa said. “I’ve never seen bankers and people in suits so excited. When you talk to them, you wouldn’t realize it was a bear market.”
Discussion on Bitcoin price structure
Despite the green screen, Bitfinex analysts see a danger in mistaking relief for demand. “The tape shows that seller exhaustion is coming at the same time as macro respite, which is not the same as true demand,” the firm’s analyst team wrote. bitcoin magazine. “The price movements that follow each behave very differently, so despite the short-term recovery, we believe the bulls face major hurdles before forming an uptrend.”
“At this point, we believe we are at a temporary bottom due to a confluence of multiple factors including a rise in correlated assets, large liquidations causing funding and open interest resets, and spot seller depletion due to macro moratorium. However, the two major spot buyer complexes, ETFs and Treasury/DAT companies, will need to turn positive for gains.” $BTC This is to get sustainable spot bids. ”
ETF data provides mixed signals. The Bitcoin Spot ETF posted five consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling nearly $1.8 billion, and broke its streak on June 12 with net inflows of $85.85 million led by BlackRock’s IBIT of $57.69 million and Fidelity’s FBTC.
While one positive session does not confirm a reversal in Bitcoin prices, it is the first sign that institutional investors may be starting to get involved again.
The Fed will be the catalyst for the future
While the geopolitical bailout trade is real, Sondergaard and Bitfinex both point to the FOMC as the variable that will determine this week’s markets beyond that. Kevin Warsh will hold his first meeting as Fed Chairman on June 16-17. Inflation was 3.8% in April, and interest rate cuts are no longer on the table, with some officials starting to look ahead to raising rates by the end of the year.
While the Fed is widely expected to keep the rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, the updated dotplot and Mr. Warsh’s first press conference will likely indicate which way the committee is leaning and, as a result, the Bitcoin price.
Bitfinex cast the Iran deal as a propagation mechanism rather than an independent catalyst, saying, “If the ceasefire holds, oil will retreat, the energy-driven component of inflation will fade, real yields and inflation break-even will ease, and the dollar’s safe-haven bid will be unwound. That same chain of events provides the most obvious near-term tailwinds for gold and Bitcoin.”
But the firm noted that timing is a key variable, saying, “The agreement lands a day before the FOMC meeting, the first of which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh. Credible supply normalization allows the committee to treat the May surge as temporary and sustain it, rather than locking it into headlines above target.”
For crypto bulls, the bulls need the ceasefire to hold, Warsh to signal from neutral to dovish, and ETF inflows to string together back-to-back positive sessions. None of these results are guaranteed.
This is precisely why, as Bitfinex puts it, Bitcoin price is still “trapped in a consolidation zone between these two key levels, where it needs to establish a durable support base or face a potential breakdown to a deeper downside.”
The post Bitcoin Prices and Crypto Stocks Soar on Iran Ceasefire, Strategy’s $100M Purchase Collides with Federal Reserve Week originally appeared in Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.
