Grayscale is influencing whether Bitcoin is cheap or not $BTCThe recent decline was below $60,000. The company points out to investors two key factors that may determine whether the market has found a bottom.
Important points:
- Grayscale claims Bitcoin’s recent selloff boosted $BTC It is below the long-term valuation level.
- Developments in the CLARITY Act could shape Bitcoin market sentiment.
- Leveraged traders may decide whether selling pressure eases or volatility returns.
What Bitcoin Valuation Metrics Suggest $BTC may be underestimated
Bitcoin’s recent fall into a new cycle below $60,000 has raised an important question among investors: Is Bitcoin finally cheap again? The answer could influence sentiment throughout the rest of the cycle.
Composite on-chain valuation metrics suggest that Bitcoin is currently trading below its long-term average valuation, according to a June 9 research report by Zack Pandle, head of research at Grayscale Investments. Whether or not $BTC The bottom may depend on regulatory progress and holder leverage, but the data suggests it is undervalued relative to historical trends.
“Based on signals from various on-chain valuation metrics, the answer is yes. But not as much as previous cyclical lows,” Pandol wrote in response to the question “Is Bitcoin still cheap?” The latest measurements are: $BTC While this is below the long-term valuation average, it is still below the deep discounts seen after the FTX collapse.
Grayscale’s head of research said:
“We believe this bear market could be shallower than in the past, given that previous bull markets were more subdued and given the improved market structure due to the availability of ETPs, the rollout of wealth platforms, and the introduction of other types of institutions.”
Pandol argues that the Bitcoin market structure has changed significantly over the past few years. Exchange-traded products, access to wealth platforms, and institutional adoption may help explain why Bitcoin doesn’t need to revisit the extremes of its early bear market before attracting buyers.
The rating model combines three on-chain metrics. Net Unrealized Gains and Losses (NUPL) measures whether the holder is enjoying a profit or incurring a loss. Price/Cumulative Value Days Destruction (CVDD) compares the price of Bitcoin to a long-term value benchmark based on the movement of long-held coins. Market Cap/Thermo Cap compares the market value of Bitcoin to cumulative miner revenue.
The CLARITY method and the potential for leveraged traders to form $BTCnext move
Despite the encouraging valuation signals, Grayscale says two major factors could determine Bitcoin’s next move.
The first is the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate. Grayscale frames the legislation as a near-term catalyst that could impact how investors assess the regulatory risk of digital assets.
The CLARITY Act would establish a federal market structure for digital assets, including rules regarding token classification, exchanges, brokers, custody, and disclosure. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill in 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in a bipartisan vote in May. The bill still requires approval by the full Senate.
The second factor is whether leveraged Bitcoin holders can withstand current market pressures without triggering additional selling. Bitcoin could face downward volatility again if highly leveraged investors are forced to unwind their positions.
Grayscale’s head of research said:
“While we remain optimistic about CLARITY, prediction markets say it is debatable.”
Investors are closely monitoring both developments. Regulatory developments could support confidence, while stable leverage could ease concerns about forced sales.
For now, Grayscale believes Bitcoin’s current valuation could present an attractive opportunity for long-term investors. The company isn’t saying the market is definitively at the bottom, but its research shows $BTC It trades at a discount compared to historical norms. Whether this discount reaches a sustainable floor may depend on the Senate’s progress, leverage status, and market stress.
