Bitcoin may be flashing one of the most closely watched contrarian signals. Currently, over 10 million BTC are held below acquisition costs, Parts of the market are underwater.. According to recent on-chain observations: highlighted The development, from analyst Ali Martinez, places Bitcoin in territory that historically coincides with major market turning points, sparking fresh debate about whether the recent decline may be nearing a bottom.
Bitcoin Underwater Supply Reaches Historic Limit
The latest data points to a surprising change in market positioning. According to glass nodeAccording to BTC’s total supply loss metric, approximately 10.46 million BTC has been lost. Currently in deficit. Considering that Bitcoin’s circulating supply is just under 21 million, this figure is roughly half of all coins in existence.
The importance of this threshold becomes clearer when compared to Bitcoin’s historical market cycles. Previous major low Losses often occur when the amount of BTC held exceeds 10 million coins. Similar situations have occurred during the market’s most severe corrections, many of which later led to long-term recoveries.
The latest on-chain data highlights the changing balance between profitable and unprofitable assets. As the price of Bitcoin fell from its peak, the number of coins held as profits decreased, and the supply also decreased. The embarrassed expression grew considerably.. By June 2026, the latter had risen to approximately 10.46 million BTC, pushing the market into territory historically associated with severe economic downturns and heightened investor stress.
At the same time, Bitcoin price has fallen significantly from its cycle peak. According to recent market data, BTC is trading around $63,242. Losses spread over multiple periodsIt was found to have decreased by more than 40% compared to the previous year. These numbers help explain why so much of the network was saddled with unrealized losses.
Is this the worst sign or just another stage of adjustment?
This is where the discussion becomes particularly interesting. Martinez argues that increased loss holding could reduce the intensity of selling activity. When a large number of investors are already in deep trouble, the incentive to liquidate positions is often reduced. Rather than locking in losses, Many holders choose to wait.This gradually weakened selling pressure.
Recent Glassnode data appears This supports the idea that sentiment has deteriorated significantly. Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Indicator After spending most of the previous year in more optimistic territory, we’ve fallen into “hope-fear” territory. Historically, these low NUPL ranges have reflected periods of shaky confidence; widespread surrender It hasn’t necessarily gotten stronger.
Losses of over 10 million BTC, weak sentiment, and sharp declines from previous highs combined to place it near historically major market bottoms. while A definite bottom has not yet been confirmedThe scale of unrealized losses across the network indicates that Bitcoin is once again trading in an area often associated with accumulation and recovery.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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