Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $73,000 on May 28, 2026, due to increased global risk aversion due to the war between the US and Iran.
At the time of publishing this article, Bitcoin is trading at $73,263, 41.9% below its all-time high (ATH) of $126,198.
This is due to the continued war in the Middle East that began on February 28th, with the market under stress due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal circumstances, the strategic maritime route circulates nearly 20% of the world’s oil transported by sea.described by CriptoNoticias.
Restrictions and threats in that corridor will cause energy prices and They reignited fears of a new global inflation shock.
This macroeconomic deterioration has hit assets considered risky, such as technology stocks and Bitcoin, but investors are seeking refuge in more conservative products in the face of an increasingly uncertain international scenario.
In this context, various traders and analysts started predicting bearish scenarios for BTC, but with important differences regarding the depth and duration of the correction.
For Willy Wu, “lateral structure still works”
Professional trader and market analyst Willy Wu claims that despite the recent decline, BTC has not yet confirmed a structural collapse.
On May 28, Wu wrote on his X account that “risk has decreased slightly” and “inflow into the network remains fairly neutral.” A “Macrocycle Risk Model” graph is attached to this publication (Macro cycle risk model).
The graphic shared by Woo combines two main elements. The blue line above represents the price of BTC from 2020 to present. Below that you’ll see a yellow line called “Local Risk” (local risk), which measures the level of market risk according to variables related to liquidity and behavior on the network.
The vertical gray zone indicates a period during which BTC historically went through a phase of low relative risk before a new relevant market move. The index has returned to low levels or “neutral territory,” Wu said. For him, that suggests that “the lateral structure is still valid.”
but, Market analysts detect negative signals outside the BTC market. “We are also reading signs that the stock market’s bullish trend is running out,” he warned.
This phrase means that the stock may be losing momentum after a period of appreciation. In other words, While we don’t necessarily expect a decline any time soon, we do expect that traditional market momentum may be lost. For this reason, he added, “If that happens, BTC could continue its downward trend beyond June.”
The trader clarified that the signal is “not anchored to data about the actual behavior of investors” and therefore believes it to be less reliable than the network indicators he typically uses to study BTC.
Van de Poppe: “I expect $60,000 to be tested.”
Even more bearish was trader Michael van de Poppe, who believes Bitcoin is not yet done with the correction. To support his theory, he shared a price chart of the asset showing some relevant technical zones.
As seen in the previous image, the green and red candlesticks represent daily price movements, and the blue line acts as a trend moving average.
Red zone at the top. Marked as a critical area to break through (Important areas to break into), It appears around $76,600 and represents the major resistance that BTC was unable to overcome.
Above you can see another technical reference called “CME Gap” with a price tag around $79,000. The CME Gap is the price difference that occurs when the price of a Bitcoin futures contract listed on CME, a Chicago derivatives exchange, opens at a different level than its previous closing price.
It is important to point this out as many traders focus on these gaps as historically prices tend to move back into these areas.
“BTC rejected the $77,000 area and was unable to break out of that level,” Van de Poppe explained. “This rejection accelerated the downward momentum,” he said.
For traders, the decline is a reaction to typical month-end factors in financial markets. “A standard approach is developing here. At the end of the month, there is a rebalancing between asset managers and a market correction,” he noted. “And that’s why this cooling is happening in BTC,” he added.
For him, the current zone represents “the last stance of an important support zone.” If that level is lost, the scenario can deteriorate rapidly. “Otherwise, the low $60,000s will test support,” the trader said.
In technical analysis, support refers to an area where there is historically sufficient buying demand to halt or moderate the decline. In other words, Van de Poppe believes that if BTC loses its current territory; The market was only able to find a buyer in the low price range of $60,000.
Crypto Rover: “All hell is going to break loose”
Far more aggressive was trader Crypto Rover, who believes BTC has already triggered a clear bearish structure.
According to the analyst, BTC has started to break out of the “head and shoulders” technical pattern, which is usually interpreted as a sign of continued bearishness.
“The big BTC crash is happening now,” he said, adding that at the same time, “we are starting to break out of this head-and-shoulders pattern.”
This pattern is formed when price forms three peaks. The first high, then the higher peak (the “head”), and then the next lower high. The area connecting the lows between these peaks is known as the “neckline.”
When the price falls below that line, Many traders interpret this as a sign that the trend is weakening and the decline could accelerate. “The moment we break through this level, literally all hell will break loose on BTC,” he warned.
Crypto Rover predicts even deeper scenarios for prices. “We expect the goal to be between $45,000 and $60,000,” he said.
According to analysts, Bitcoin continues to reproduce typical patterns of past bear markets. “In any bear market, Bitcoin goes up and then goes down,” he explained.
Still, the trader argues that the sharp decline could also represent a long-term accumulation opportunity. “We want Bitcoin to come back to that region because we want to actively accumulate there,” he said.
On the other hand, the market remains highly sensitive to all developments related to the Middle East. An eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or concrete signs of military detente could temporarily ease pressure on risk assets.
However, if the conflict worsens further and global inflationary tensions increase; Volatility is likely to continue to dominate Bitcoin trends in the coming weeks.
