The stock price of a company called Circle (CRCL) has established a positive correlation with the market capitalization of its stablecoin, USDC. This trend structurally links the value of companies to the evolution of key digital assets, both during periods of growth and contraction.
Such simultaneity means that stock market movements and stablecoin supply tend to move at the same time. USDC is currently capitalized at approximately $77 billion, and the market has stopped evaluating Circle for its technological promise. Rather, it seems to be recognized as a financial asset management business.
The nature of this link lies in the income structure of the issuing entity. Circle supports all units of USDC in circulation Reserve assets consisting primarily of U.S. Treasuries (about 80-90%) as described by CriptoNoticias. Yields on these sovereign debt products range from 4.06% to 4.55%.
In this model, an increase in the supply of USDC means Circle has more capital invested in these bonds, generating millions of dollars in profits from interest collections. The stock market responds by rewarding companies with higher prices. on the contrary, When the demand for a stablecoin decreases and its market capitalization decreasesthe income-producing asset base decreases and stock prices decline.
A clear example of this correlation occurred between February and May 2026. On February 5th, the stock price hit a low of $50. This coincided with a period when both the USDC market cap and the Circle Index were in negative territory. From late February, USDC’s capital began to expand, The stock price began to rise, reaching $126.5. In the first half of May, it increased by 153%.
The left axis of data company CryptoQuant’s graph shows that the correlation coefficient frequently fluctuates above 0.6 and has steadily reached its maximum peak (near 1.0) since December 2025. A coefficient of 1.0 means that the stock price and USDC market capitalization are perfectly correlated.
The correlation line has remained at a high level for most of the period since the end of 2025. This confirms that: Stock prices already reflect relevant changes in USDC supply almost immediately..
This behavior also serves as an indicator of market risk appetite. Increased demand for USDC typically indicates that investors are entering the ecosystem with more capital and need stablecoins to operate. This flow will directly lead to an increase in Circle’s profitability and therefore lead to a revaluation of its shares in the stock market.
(Tag Translation) Circle
