According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum’s trading price at the time of writing was $2,280.47, with 24-hour trading volume of $10.18 billion.
$ETH It is up 0.75% over the past day, but remains down 1.56% over the past 7 days. Its market cap was $275.23 billion based on a circulating supply of $120 million. $ETH.
Price movements occur as analysts track adverse signals from exchange supply and derivatives data.
Indicating the risk of a decline in the exchange supply ratio
CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA said Ethereum could still face downside risks. The analyst pointed to a sharp decline in the exchange rate supply ratio.
In past cycles, decline rates often appeared near price bottoms. While a reduction in foreign exchange supply could mean less selling pressure, analysts said the current setup shows a gap.
PelinayPA said that this ratio has declined to a low level; $ETH No matching price bottom has formed. The analyst said this could mean the market is not fully pricing in supply movements.
“There is still a chance of a delayed decline,” the analyst added. The view suggests that $ETH There may still be a need to bridge the gap between prices and exchange supply behavior.
Oppression debate emerges due to negative funding
Another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, took a different view. The analyst said that Ethereum’s short-side positions are crowded.
According to our analysis, Binance’s funding rate remained negative for a long period of time. Darkforst compared the period of negative funding to levels last seen during the FTX collapse period in November 2022.
The analyst said that Ethereum has recovered more than 30% from its February 6 lows. Still, many traders continue to hold short positions despite the rebound.
According to Dirkforst, Binance’s average monthly funding rate is -0.0018. This shows that there is strong demand among traders to bet on the downside.
Short-term liquidation could aid recovery
Dirkforst said the increase in short-term liquidations shows that some bearish traders are already under pressure. if $ETH If it continues to rise, more short positions may be closed.
Forced short sales transactions can add buying pressure to the market. This could support a price recovery if many traders hold the same bearish position.
However, this setting does not eliminate downside risk. Ethereum still faces a mixed market structure, with spot supply data warning of a possible decline.
The current outlook for Ethereum remains divided. One of the on-chain signals points to the possibility of a delayed pullback, while derivatives data points to the risk of a short squeeze.
