Short-term holders have all but retreated from the market. According to data from CryptoQuant, the UTXO realization cap for one-week to one-month holders has fallen to 3.91%. This is a level last seen in October 2023, when Bitcoin was changing hands near $27,000.
That quiet, subtle signal is now catching the attention of analysts who say it points to something bigger. This means that Bitcoin may be significantly undervalued.
Bitcoin: Sentiment has changed dramatically since December
Coinbase Institutional Research and Glassnode conducted a joint survey of 91 global investors from March 16 to April 7. This group included participants from 29 institutions and 62 non-institutions. What they find is a stark difference from where it was just a few months ago.
Approximately 82% of institutional respondents and 70% of non-institutional respondents now classify the current market as in a late bear or price reduction phase. In December, only about a third held that view. Change happened quickly.
Valuation opinions were similarly pointed out. About 75% of institutions and 61% of non-institutions say Bitcoin is undervalued at its current price. Few people indicated that the price was too high.
Bitcoin market sentiment survey. Source: Coinbase
Expectations about Bitcoin dominance have also changed. The percentage of institutions expecting their dominance to increase decreased from 40% to 25%. A majority (about 54%) now expect it to stay around the current level of 58.1%, while 21% think it will fall.
On-chain indicators support the undervaluation argument
Survey results are not independent. On-chain data tells a similar story.
Analyst Minkyu Woo’s Bitcoin Composite Market Index, known as BCMI, incorporates four individual indicators: MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and investor sentiment.
MVRV compares market value to realized value. NUPL tracks the net unrealized profits and losses of every holder. SOPR measures whether a coin is sold at a profit or loss. This provides a broad picture of prices and behavior.
Source: CryptoQuant
BCMI recently rose from 0.26 to 0.37. This range corresponds to periods of severe historical undervaluation. The 90-day average is still trending lower, which means selling pressure has not fully subsided.
BTC – Are we approaching relatively undervalued territory?
“Our interpretation based on historical data suggests that the market has entered an area reasonably close to undervalued territory.” – by @DanCoinvester pic.twitter.com/qiAkYP5M9l
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoQuant_com) March 11, 2026
But Minkyu Woo said the data suggests the downside is limited relative to the long-term upside and that the market is entering what he calls a “value accumulation zone.”
Analyst Crypto Dan made a similar observation in March. He said Bitcoin is approaching undervalued territory based on the decline in UTXO ages, but no final bottom has been confirmed.
Historical pattern points towards a potential cycle low
According to the report, whenever the 1-week to 1-month UTXO age range reaches this level after 2021, Bitcoin will typically see a low cycle within 3 to 6 months. The pattern does not guarantee repetition, but it does give historical weight to the current setup.
Featured image by MetaAI, chart by TradingView
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