Bitcoin reversed its intraday rally towards $78,000 and is now trading near $76,600, while crude oil traded near $103 and the S&P 500 fell as the U.S. stock market opened.
Ahead of the US cash trade, Bitcoin rose even as crude oil continued to rise, suggesting that crypto-specific positioning was strong enough to resist some of the day’s oil inflation trades.
After the start of trading, things turned towards the stock. The chart below shows Bitcoin reversing as the S&P 500 falls while oil continues to rise.
This leaves two signals in tension. Bitcoin can be traded independently of stocks while spot stocks are closed, but the risk appetite of US stocks could still push Bitcoin back when the market opens.
According to broader market data, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is about $2.6 trillion, the 24-hour trading volume is about $122 billion, and Bitcoin’s dominance is close to 60%.
crypto slate The Bitcoin market page shows that Bitcoin started today in the low $77,000 range, up about 1.6% in 24 hours, giving it a market capitalization of about $1.56 trillion. The latest chart shows why intraday strength has declined. The US Open moved from a simple oil shock vent to a follow-through test for stock prices.
The open triggered the stock.
The first phase of the session undermined the simple April template that higher oil automatically meant lower Bitcoin. Crude oil rose above $100 territory, but Bitcoin was still moving towards $78,000 before US spot stocks started.
In the second phase, the equity sector of trade was restored. As the S&P 500 edged lower, Bitcoin fell toward the mid-$76,000s despite rising oil prices.
Bitcoin showed that it can withstand an oil shock for part of the session. The same session also showed that the equity open could pull assets back into broader risk trades.
This is also consistent with before crypto slate coverage. Bitcoin’s drop below $78,000 on April 23 appeared to be driven by equity and risk appetite impulses rather than a direct movement in oil prices, as oil prices were relatively flat while the S&P 500 weakened.
Today’s chart adds a sharper version of that setup. Oil prices were rising, and Bitcoin initially resisted the pressure before the S&P 500 open was the event that pushed Bitcoin lower.
Oil still dominates the outer borders
The oil channel is already included in Bitcoin’s April configuration. On April 24, Bitcoin held near $78,000 as oil prices soared above $100, testing whether demand for the rare asset can withstand a stronger dollar, rising real yield pressure and declining liquidity.
Separate analysis on the global oil crisis and the Fed said fuel, cargo and input costs could move from commodity screens to real inflation.
This channel can continue to set rates and liquidity conditions even if Bitcoin finds short-term bidding.
Official inflation data illustrates that risk. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI in March rose 0.9% from February and 3.3% from the same month last year.
Energy rose 10.9% month-on-month, led by a 21.2% rise in gasoline. Subsequently, in a March survey by the New York Fed, the expected year-on-year rate of change in gasoline prices was 9.4%, the highest level since March 2022.
The structure of the energy market requires additional attention. The Energy Information Administration described widening Brent-WTI spreads and disruptions to Strait of Hormuz navigation as part of the global oil market backdrop. Oil stress could shift from commodity pricing to inflation expectations, which would leave the Fed channel open.
A calendar concentrates that pressure. On the Fed’s calendar, the April 28-29 FOMC meeting will be directly related to this asset-to-asset movement.
BEA’s schedule lists first-quarter GDP as of April 30 and personal income and spending for March. The same late-April window was already framed as a volatility cluster around options, oil, and the Fed.
The next set of policy and data outcomes could determine whether oil-related developments become a permanent fiscal problem.
Flow is an offset and equity is a confirmation
The balance is demand. According to CoinShares’ latest weekly report, sales of digital asset investment products were $1.2 billion, the fourth consecutive week of positive growth.
Of this amount, Bitcoin accounted for $933 million. CoinShares also said that the FOMC decision on April 28-29 likely heightened the sense of last-minute caution.
On April 28, capital flows and spot demand were strong enough to restructure the bid, but the Fed still had another tough test ahead of it.
This helps explain the resilience before the opening. If capital demand, positioning, or crypto-specific liquidity are strong enough for the session, Bitcoin could rise even if oil prices remain elevated. The post-open reversal shows why it is incomplete on its own.
CME’s E-mini S&P 500 futures have become a strong tracker for the equity sector to determine whether to support or undermine Bitcoin’s next move.
| signal | What supports Bitcoin | What puts pressure on Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| oil and inflation | Policy stress can bring back demand for scarce assets. | Rising fuel costs could boost inflation expectations, keep the Fed on guard and tighten liquidity. |
| flow and positioning | CoinShares recently reported an inflow of $933 million in Bitcoin products in one week. | Flow strength still faces challenges from the FOMC and bond markets. |
| stock | The S&P 500 and futures follow-through would support the risk appetite interpretation. | A weak opening in the stock price could pull Bitcoin back into risky asset trading. |
The April 22 setting provided a useful threshold for this move. If Bitcoin stays flat or consolidates around $78,000 as oil prices continue to rise, the war-era template that high oil prices automatically mean cheap Bitcoin will weaken, the paper said.
So far today, Bitcoin met its test before U.S. stocks opened, but lost momentum when the S&P 500 fell.
A subsequent bond market analysis on April 28 showed that the battleground for Bitcoin was around the $78,100 to $80,100 area.
If the price breaks below this zone, sellers could argue that the rally is yet another failed resistance move. Beyond that, flows are likely to turn the recent rebound into a sustained demand signal.
CME FedWatch continues to serve as a live check on how the market is hinting at how interest rate expectations will move through this test.
Two scenarios follow from the updated graph. In the flow-driven case, oil remains elevated but does not accelerate, the S&P 500 stabilizes, and Bitcoin regains the high $77,000s before testing the $78,100 to $80,100 range.
In the case of macro pressures, oil has kept inflation expectations warm, Fed pricing has moved against risk assets, the S&P 500 has fallen, and Bitcoin remains below the high $77,000s. That would restore the familiar April sequence of oil pressure first, equity stress second, and Bitcoin liquidity last.
Bitcoin ignored crude oil long enough to prove that the oil shock was not the only force during the day. When US markets opened, stocks triggered Bitcoin back. The test of the current regime will be whether flows can restructure the bid while oil and the Fed maintain pressure on risk assets.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
