The currency intervention strategy implemented by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and the national financial system faces significant challenges due to the persistent gap between the exchange rate of the US dollar.
In the first months of 2026, more than US$3 billion was injected into the economy with the aim of stabilizing the market. However, the impact on the price difference between the official dollar and USDT stablecoin is limited. Questioning the sustainability of current monetary policy Under conditions of high liquidity expansion.
According to market data as of April 24, 2026, the official rate of BCV is 483.86 Bolivars, while the average bank rate is 513.9 Bolivars. In contrast, in the main peer-to-peer (P2P) market, the value of the dollar-linked cryptocurrency USDT reaches 625.3 bolivars.
It should be remembered that Venezuela’s USDT began to be used as the basis for the Paradol last year, especially after the government abolished social media pages such as EnParalelo Vzla and Monitor Dólar, which provided average prices for the USD on the informal market. Due to this fact, approximately 60 people were arrested.
Given the above, the current distortion between the official price of the dollar and the price of USDT is The exchange gap is equivalent to 29.23%. This is a margin that exceeded 50% earlier this year, and by today’s standards it encourages arbitration and erodes the real purchasing power of the public.
Currency liquidity is the main driver of the exchange gap
Venezuelan economist Asdrubal Oliveros pointed out that in April alone, more than $1 billion was allocated to meet the needs of the private sector and individuals. However, the current policy is This is expensive and requires urgent review.This is because efforts to “burn” currency cannot contain the pressures of alternative markets.
He pointed to fiscal failures and suggested that the main driver of exchange rate pressure in Venezuela is the lack of liquidity management of the bolivar currency. And in just 3 months, The mass of local currency in the system has increased by 60.98%according to BCV’s own data available on its website.
As seen in the table below, peak fluctuations of more than 12% were recorded during certain weeks in January and March. This generally indicates a large injection of bolivars. Will take refuge in digital assets to preserve valueincreasing prices.
This abundance of bolivars in a limited supply of foreign exchange creates a tangible impact. Analyzing the total amount of monetary liquidity, which is equivalent to 151,304.6 million bolivars, the value at the official exchange rate is equivalent to approximately 312.7 million US dollars. However, when trying to liquidate the coin block in the USDT market, The real value drops to USD 241.97 million.
A difference of more than $70 million represents a 22.6% loss in the system’s real purchasing capacity.
For Oliveros, this issue is one of fiscal issues and money issuance. Must be attended to in an “essential” way. That means cutting the budget deficit and turning off the Bolivar faucet, which, as you can see, continues to rise this year.
“Inefficient” auction mechanisms need to be adjusted
Meanwhile, business consultants pointed out that currency distortions remain in Venezuela due to a third factor: inefficiency. This is how the auction works, Oliveros said. We must respond immediately.
The expert highlighted the lack of correspondence between the prices awarded in the operation and the rates published by the issuers. It also criticized the opacity and fragmentation of the system, with access concentrated in a few sectors. This prevents the official rate from reflecting the real equilibrium price.
Additionally, additional variables are introduced into the geopolitical panorama. License No. 57 was recently issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). There are expectations that foreign currency inflows may increase further.. Economist Aaron Olmos explained to CriptoNoticias last week that this measure could put downward pressure on USDT prices in the short term, similar to what happened in the first quarter of this year.
But Olmos warns that stability is fragile. Positive expectations may temporarily close the gap, but sustainability depends on structural adjustments. The analyst recalled that the narrowing of inequality in the past period was not due to the strengthening of the bolivar, but to the accelerating rise in the official discount rate. This resulted in inflation in the prices of goods and services.
Experts like Oliveros say solving the currency crisis will require more than selling the dollar. For him, it is necessary for the triangle of exchange stability in Venezuela to work. He thinks it’s doable because the pinnacles of injecting dollars, tightening fiscal controls and improving auctions are working correctly. This is a scenario that leads to more stability.
(Tag translation) Cryptocurrency
