Prediction markets expect the blockade of Hormuz to be prolonged even after Washington and the Iranian government extend the ceasefire.
Traders in Qarshi lowered the odds for an early return to normal shipping after both sides said little about what the market actually cared about: whether Iran would reopen the strait and whether the United States would stop blocking it with naval force.
In Karshi, the probability that regular traffic in Hormuz will be given to bettors by June 1st is only 42%. Odds improve to 59% by July 1st and 61% by August 1st. Polymarket paints a similar picture. Bettors on the Strait now believe there is a 45% chance that the Strait will return to normal by the end of May and a 67% chance that it will return to normal by the end of June.
Both platforms use the same standards. They define normal flow as the seven-day rolling average of connecting flights through the Strait, based on IMF PortWatch data.
Markets further boost prospects for reopening as shipping traffic remains well below normal
The actual traffic volume passing through Hormuz remains below pre-war levels. Only eight vessels, including three oil tankers, crossed the strait on Wednesday, according to LSEG data. Before the war, this route typically handled more than 100 ships per day.
On the same day, Iran announced that it had seized two ships that attempted to cross the border without permission. This was important as the market was already looking to see if vessel numbers would recover after the ceasefire extension. they didn’t.
Ulrike Hoffmann Burchardi, UBS’s chief investment officer for the Americas, said in a note Thursday that reopening the strait “remains difficult.” She pointed to comments by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who said the strait would not reopen as long as the U.S. naval blockade remained in place.
“These developments demonstrate the challenges of resolving the conflict and reopening the strait to allow normalization of energy flows and production,” Hoffman Burchardi wrote. “Prolonged high energy prices could weigh on growth,” he added.
Iran seizes ship, President Trump intensifies threats, oil price recovers to over $100
Military clashes continued to intensify on Thursday. President Trump said he would “shoot and kill” ships laying mines in the strait. At the same time, Brent crude oil rose above $100 per barrel. Iran has since released a new video aimed at demonstrating its control over Ruto.
State television showed footage of masked special forces attacking the large cargo ship MSC Francesca. Video footage showed troops in a gray speedboat pulling alongside the ship, climbing rope ladders to reach the side door of the ship and jumping in with rifles.
Another ship, the Epaminondas, was also shown on the broadcast. Iran said both ships were seized Wednesday after attempting to cross without permission.
The U.S. government also expanded its own actions at sea. The United States on Thursday said it had boarded another tanker, the Majestic, in the Indian Ocean. The tanker appeared to match the supertanker last reported off the coast of Sri Lanka, carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil.
Since the United States and Israel went to war in February, Iran has effectively closed off the strait to all but its own shipping. Iran appears to have taken control of the waterway since peace talks collapsed on Tuesday, hours before a two-week cease-fire expired.
Diplomacy still exists in the background, but it comes with conditions. A senior Iranian government official told Reuters on Thursday that Iran may consider attending the meeting in Pakistan, but only if the U.S. blockade is lifted and the seized Iranian vessels are released.
Earlier that morning, President Trump posted that the U.S. Navy was in complete control of the strait. He wrote: “We have complete control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ships can enter or exit without US Navy approval. Until Iran gets a deal, it’s ‘strictly sealed’!!!”
