On-chain analyst James Check published a report on April 23, concluding that a mass selloff of Bitcoin coins, which are most vulnerable to quantum attacks, would trigger a bear market, but would not be a catastrophic event for the network.
Check analysis shows that the 1.7 million BTC stored in Satoshi-era P2PK addresses (the real target of any attack) is equivalent to 60 to 90 days of typical bull market selling pressure, an amount that Bitcoin buyers absorb on a daily basis.
Check’s central argument is that the 6.93 million BTC vulnerability circulating in discussions about quantum computing threats is a theoretical upper limit, not a realistic number.
Most of these funds are in the hands of exchangesan administrator or an active user with an incentive to update the system, the researchers said. The real risk centers on coins in P2PK addresses that are believed to have been lost for more than a decade, and whose public keys were exposed by the design of the original Bitcoin protocol.
To gauge the potential impact, Check compared the volume to various market indicators. Over 2.3 million BTC in the past 90 days Changed hands during bearish surrender1.36 times the total P2PK. Deposits to the exchange totaled approximately 1.8 million BTC in 60 days. The conclusion is consistent across all scenarios. The pressure will be withstood in months, not years.
The debate surrounding these numbers
The report comes amid debate over how Bitcoin should respond to quantum threats.
The BIP-361 proposal, led by cypherpunk Jameson Ropp, soft fork A mechanism to invalidate the current Bitcoin cryptographic signature as of a specific date. Along with that Users must move funds to addresses that are resistant to quantum computing.
Andrew Howard, director of Bull Bitcoin, warned that the proposal does not improve security, but rather sets a precedent for forced protocol freezes.
As an alternative, BitMEX proposed a conditional system in which the freeze would only be triggered if quantum technology capable of breaking the encryption was demonstrated. already exists. This is supported by a “canary” address (designed so that any spending from this address automatically confirms that the Bitcoin cryptocurrency has been compromised). Such charges act as automatic triggers for emergency protocols.
check propose a third wayan approach already considered in BIP-360: hourglass. This is an interim proposal in the debate that seeks to avoid both a forced freeze and uncontrolled mass selling of the currency.
This approach works like this: Instead of allowing a quantum attacker to move all P2PK coins at once, the protocol allows only one. output P2PK per mined block. There are approximately 38,000 such outputs, so It takes about 264 days to exhaust themabout 9 months.
At the moment, BIP-361 is in draft status There is no activation date. Changing the protocol requires broad consensus among developers, miners, and administrators.
(Tag Translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
