Ethereum is looking to sustain above $2,300 as the market weathers another phase of volatility and uncertainty. Price movements remain hesitant, caught between buyers looking for a reason to commit and sellers who have defined the derivatives landscape this cycle more aggressively than at almost any previous time. But something about that situation has just changed, according to top analyst Dirkforst, and that change is significant enough to be worth noting.
Throughout this cycle, the Ethereum derivatives market has been unusually hostile to the bulls. Net taker volume, a measure of how actively buyers and sellers are participating in the market, has remained almost consistently negative.
The clearest example occurred in December 2024, when ETH was hurtling toward a new all-time high above $4,000. Rather than buyers chasing the breakout, net taker volume collapsed to -$511 million. It only got worse from there. When Ethereum hit a cycle high just below $5,000, the sell-side advantage reached -$568 million. Sellers weren’t just at the top, they were dominating the top.
That pattern defined the entire rally, making every move to higher ground feel contested, costly, and ultimately unsustainable.
Dirkforst points out that the situation is very different today. For the first time this cycle, conditions in the derivatives market appear to be changing. And it’s worth understanding what will replace that sustained selling pressure.
The sellers who defined this cycle have just lost their edge.
Since March, the dynamics that have defined the entire Ethereum derivatives market have quietly reversed. Buy-side volume took the lead, with net-taker volume reaching +$102 million today. After months of sellers dominating all major price levels, including record highs, buyers are now actively entering the market.
The historical context provided by Darkforest is what gives this change real weight. The last time the Ethereum derivatives market showed buying pressure of this magnitude was in 2022, when ETH was trading around $1,000, close to the bottom of the previous bear market. This was the last time a buyer stepped in with this kind of conviction. Anyone who has followed Ethereum over multiple cycles will never lose sight of what followed from that period.
If this trend holds, the implications will be significant. This cycle was defined by a specific and unusual pattern. That is, sellers prevailed not only in times of weakness, but in all attempts at strength. All rallies were greeted with positive supplies. That pressure is causing Ethereum’s recovery to feel fragile and short-lived.
Ethereum’s structural context is changing if buyers are consistently absorbing that supply rather than standing on the sidelines. It is premature and one data point alone does not support a new regime. But going from -$568 million at its peak to +$102 million today is no small move. When sustained, such reversals tend to precede something more meaningful than a temporary rebound.
Ethereum tests resilience as it builds recovery structure
Ethereum is trying to stabilize above the $2,300 level after recovering from a sharp drop in February that briefly pushed the price below $1,800. This rebound has been constructive in the short term, with prices forming a series of lows since early March. However, the broader structure remains unresolved.
The main technical feature of the current chart is the interaction with the 200-day moving average, which is trending down and is currently located just above the price. This level acts as a dynamic resistance, denying multiple recovery attempts. The recent rally to the $2,350-$2,400 zone was once again hit by selling pressure, confirming that sellers are still holding on to high levels.
Volume dynamics add nuance to the image. The February capitulation event was clearly accompanied by a spike in volume, suggesting a forced sell-off and potential depletion. Volume has since normalized during the recovery, suggesting a more controlled organic bid rather than aggressive momentum chasing.
Although short-term momentum is improving, Ethereum has yet to see any structural changes. To move from a recovery to a trend reversal, the 200-day moving average needs to be broken cleanly and maintained. Until that happens, the current move appears to be a developing range with resistance overhead and push buying by cautious buyers.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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