Bitcoin (BTC) price begins in 2026, marking its decoupling from the global money supply (M2). Historically, digital assets have risen in line with the amount of money in circulation, but the first few months of this year created a gap where liquidity increased while Bitcoin’s price remained in retreat.
M2 monetary supply is an indicator that measures cash deposits that are easily converted into cash. On a global scale, the evolution of M2 allows us to refer to the level of liquidity in the financial system that typically facilitates investment in assets such as Bitcoin. However, in 2026, that relationship collapsed.
The following graph shows the significant divergence between Bitcoin price and money supply through 2026. As reported by CriptoNoticias, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. This matched global liquidity to $114 trillion. However, from January 2026, Although liquidity continued its upward trend, asset prices began to decline, falling to $63,000. In February.
This amendment represented a decrease of almost 50% from the maximum value, even though the funds available in the system did not stop increasing.
This year’s increase in money supply was driven by actions by the US Federal Reserve (FED). After a period of quantitative adjustment to control inflation, the Fed announced on December 10, 2025: I will start buying short-term government bonds To maintain bank reserves at appropriate levels.
This new expansion of balance sheets is due to central banks Injected more than $40 billion through asset acquisitions. By performing these operations, the FED introduces funds onto banks’ balance sheets. This is one of the main reasons why global M2 will grow again in 2026.
As of April 2026, global M2 liquidity has reached $119 trillion. In this context, Bitcoin price has seen a slight rebound, reaching over $78,000 today. This move is in line with M2’s latest impulse. Suggests Bitcoin is about to ‘reconnect’ with the money supply after months of separation.
Current markets face conflicting monetary policies. Interest rates are still rising in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, but the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are injecting liquidity into the system through bond purchases and repurchases to avoid stress in the bond market. This high cost of credit slows down the fluid circulation of capital. Investor Mark Chadwick asserts that if Bitcoin can close the gap with the M2 index, the market will “enter 2021-type expansion territory.”
This was a period of growth for Bitcoin due to a massive injection of global liquidity and interest rates near zero (0 – 0.25%). At the time, excess funds in the system pushed Bitcoin to record levels, creating a bull market that began in 2021 around $29,000 and reached a then-high $69,109 in November. According to Chadwick, If the currency were to reconnect with the current amount of money, this scenario of accelerated growth would be repeated..
