Bitcoin (BTC)’s risk index dropped to 0 on April 14, 2026, entering a complete low-risk regime.
According to data provided by Swissblock, this is a level that has historically (in 2024 and 2025) coincided with the moment when selling pressure ceases and the market begins to find a bottom.
The graph shows two main elements. On the one hand, the evolution of Bitcoin’s price (upper line) with alternating bullish and bearish sections. On the other hand, the risk index (bottom line) fluctuates between high levels (associated with increasing market vulnerability) and an area close to 0. Indicates a low-risk condition.
blue stripes These precisely mark the period when the indicator reaches its minimum value.
According to Swissblock, these areas should not be interpreted as the beginning of a new bullish phase. However, as the point at which the market completes the adjustment process. “This is where the fund is completed, not the start of expansion,” the company points out.
The BTC Risk Index is an indicator created by Satoshi Nakamoto that attempts to measure the probability of further decline in currency prices.
To do this, combine metrics On-chain Valuation and market behavior, including the relationship between market value and realized value (MVRV), measure of realized profit or loss (SOPR), short-term and long-term holder behavior analysis that allows identification Are new or old investors putting pressure on supply or holding on to assets?.
Simply put, this index attempts to reveal whether the market is in a stage of stress, capitulation, or recovery. If this value drops to 0, as it currently does, we know that the selling pressure has already been largely absorbed.
«Next steps? “Stabilization within a low-risk regime and the bulls absorbing the remaining selling pressure,” Swissbloc analysts note, and if this happens, it will be a bullish sign for BTC.
And this data will be displayed when: Markets also closely follow macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. CriptoNoticias reported that U.S. wholesale inflation was 4.0% year-on-year and 0.5% monthly, lower than expected but still high.
Add to this the Middle East war, and the market is in a state of tension. Although turmoil continues in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s crude oil passes, market sentiment has improved due to the possibility of talks between the United States and Iran resuming. In this context, BTC stability becomes even more important.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
