Grayscale, one of the world’s largest digital asset management companies, published a report on April 6 supporting the following claims: paper Google Quantum AI talks about the urgency of preparing Bitcoin and public crypto asset networks for quantum threats.
The document, signed by the financial firm’s research director, Zach Pandle, uses the March 30 Google study as a starting point to draw four independent conclusions about the state of risk and the path forward.
The grayscale report warns: It’s time to accelerate your preparationsBefore the urgency becomes inevitable.
Four conclusions about grayscale
The first conclusion for grayscale is: timing: There are currently no quantum computers capable of running Scholl’s algorithm at scale, but progress toward that goal is likely to occur in discrete leaps rather than in a straight line.
The ‘finish line’ may be closer than many assume, according to the report. paper Google estimates that between 1,200 and 1,450 logical qubits are sufficient to compromise Bitcoin encryption. Advance previously estimated resources by up to 20 times.
The second conclusion is one of technological optimism: the problem is solvable. The financial company’s report states: paper Google calls the path to post-quantum cryptography “technically clear.” Tools exist, are being proposed, reviewed, implemented, and deployed, and are already securing internet traffic and some transactions on the blockchain.
The third conclusion is that quantum risk is Not the same for all networks. According to Grayscale, it depends on whether the chain uses a UTXO (unspent output) or account model, whether its consensus is proof-of-work or proof-of-stake, whether there are native smart contracts, and the elapsed time between blocks.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, under these criteria Bitcoin has lower technical risk than networks like Ethereum and Solana, but Bitcoin faces unique challenges with a third of its supply potentially exposed.
The fourth conclusion points directly to governance: Bitcoin’s biggest obstacle to the post-quantum crypto transition. It’s social, not technical.. In the absence of a central authority, communities will have to coordinate their response, something other organizations, banks, technology companies, and governments can only do with orders from above.
Which types of addresses are most vulnerable?
The graphs included in the report are based on data from Glassnode and Grayscale as of March 5, 2026, and show the distribution of Bitcoin supply by address type.
The most relevant data for the quantum discussion is that two types of addresses expose their public keys directly on the chain. They are P2PK, which corresponds to the Satoshi era, and P2TR, the Taproot format introduced in 2021.
According to the report, these addresses have additional quantum vulnerabilities compared to other formats due to the presence of quantum computers with sufficient capacity. These published public keys can be used to derive the private key. You can access your funds without intercepting transactions in transit.
The Google Quantum AI team revealed that this interception can occur within nine minutes. This is less time than it takes to mine a block.
Problems that Bitcoin must solve
Finally, Grayscale identifies three options for coins whose owners have lost their private keys or are stored in vulnerable addresses where they do not have access to their private keys. This means writing coins, doing nothing, or intentionally limiting the usage rate of coins. Conceptually, all three are possible, according to the report. However, both require the Bitcoin community to come to a consensus..
This consensus process has historically been one of the most difficult in the ecosystem. The report cites last year’s controversy over image data stored in the block as a recent example of potential conflicts with proposed changes to the protocol. Unlike businesses and governments, Bitcoin does not have a chief technology officer who can simply order updates.
