Bitcoin in an uncomfortable position, This time, the warning came from a cycle signal that emerged at one of the market’s most critical turning points.
The leading cryptocurrency has crossed a technical threshold in a Gaussian weekly uptrend seen at the same stage in all previous market cycles, and may be headed for both, according to one analyst watching closely. final dip to the bottom And this is the last discount before the next bull market.
Flip significant Gaussian channels
at Technical update posted At He says this transition always opened the final leg of all previous Bitcoin bear markets.
According to the chart below, each cycle follows the familiar sequence of a strong green expansion phase, a transition highlighted by a trend reversal, and a red bearish channel leading to the final sweep.
Looking at the multi-year log Bitcoin weekly timeframe chart, we can see that the pattern spans the 2014/2015 cycle, the 2018/2019 bottom, and the 2022 cycle low. The current trend reversal is similar to the previous reversal, which once again places Bitcoin at a point where the trend always moves into bearish territory.
According to ChartNerd, this signal has consistently appeared right before the last major downside move in past bear markets. This is why analysts do not interpret the signal as the beginning of a long-term collapse. However, this can be seen as a late-stage development that shows that the Bitcoin price is nearing bottom.
Bitcoin trend flip. Source: @ChartNerdTA On
road to the bottom
Bitcoin is Currently down about 47% Still at the highest price of $126,080 in October 2025. Additional decline possible From this point on, most of the structural price damage has already occurred. ChartNerd’s current reading is A final low is expected somewhere. The target sweep range is $40,000 to $50,000 in the second and third quarters of 2026.
in Another analysis post, ChartNerd pointed out that despite recent supercycle talk, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle structure is still intact and the current market is still operating within that structure.
Bitcoin Gaussian Channel. Source: @ChartNerdTA On
The Gaussian channel on the price chart shows that Bitcoin price is on a path to test the channel’s red baseline at $66,895 on a 27-day time frame, with the lower red support at $44,463. There have been brief dips below that red support line in each previous cycle. This means that Bitcoin price may face one more downside volatility in this range before a reversal to the upside.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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