Bitcoin remains deep in a bear market, with its price hovering around $67,000, despite a brief rise during the week. According to market analyst GugaOnChain, underlying market activity suggests that digital assets are experiencing a complex phase and divergence, with a growing gap between strengthening on-chain supply and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin Bullish Signal: On-Chain Scarcity and Quiet Accumulation
In an April 3 QuickTake post, GugaOnChain highlights a series of structural changes following recent Bitcoin price movements. The analyst shares on-chain data showing that approximately 66,300 BTC worth approximately $4.44 billion was withdrawn from exchanges over the past month. This trend represents a move towards long-term storage, which reduces the amount of Bitcoin that can be easily sold and contributes to supply-side pressure.
Moreover, Over The Counter (OTC) trading accounted for 92.1% of Bitcoin’s recent trading volume, or $16.49 billion, compared to just 7.9% of the public order book. This is another optimistic development that points to quiet institutional accumulation and increasing BTC shortages. In contrast, retail investors continue to exit the market, with realized losses amounting to about $690 million in less than 24 hours, according to the data. This is a sign of the surrender that often accompanies final stage adjustments. However, this behavior combined with smart money accumulation has historically preceded local price bottoms as weak hands have left the market, effectively reducing selling pressure.
Uncertain macroeconomic clouds
Despite supply shocks occurring, Bitcoin is still heavily influenced by external macroeconomic factors. These include global liquidity conditions, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical tensions, which can all trigger sudden market reactions that can overwhelm bullish supply dynamics. In this environment, the use of Top 5 Exchange Whale Inflow is an important monitoring tool that shows the real-time reaction of large companies to macro shocks.
As geopolitical risks such as the recent US-Iran-Israel war are increasing, we are monitoring fund inflows to the following major exchanges. Binance (for global demand assessment) and coinbase (to determine US investor interest) is an efficient way to identify a potential sell-off or sharp collapse. For context, the 7-day average of whale inflows on the top five exchanges is currently at 16,551 BTC. Sharp increases in this indicator reflect a shift from accumulation to liquidity-seeking behavior and precede price declines.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,889 after rising 1.36% over the past week. Meanwhile, daily trading volume decreased by 41.68%, reaching $22.91 billion. Notably, Bitcoin’s risk-reward profile remains favorable as retail selling pressure has largely dissipated, suggesting a potential local bottom could soon form. However, the increased probability of left failure means that a sharp decline could have serious repercussions and place the market in a delicate position.
Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
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