Asian stocks had their best day in months and S&P 500 futures rose after the president announced he would address the nation with a “significant update” on Iran on Wednesday night. Oil has reportedly pared losses as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) prepares to support an armed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin rose 0.2% in 24 hours to trade at $67,950 on Tuesday, as a wave of optimism over a possible end to the Iran conflict boosted risk assets across the board. Ether rose 1.6% to $2,100, its strongest single-day price move in weeks.
XRP rose 0.5% to $1.34, Dogecoin rose 0.5% to $0.09, and BNB rose 0.4% to $616. Solana’s SOL was a notable laggard, down 0.7% to $83.14, widening its weekly loss to 8.7%.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 4%, its best post-war session, with nearly 10 stocks gaining for every decliner. Asian tech stocks rose 6.5%, with Samsung and SK Hynix soaring more than 9% each. S&P 500 futures rose, posting the index’s biggest single-day gain since May.
The trigger came after President Trump told reporters he expected the war to end within two to three weeks and said a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite for ending the conflict. He presented a national address Wednesday at 9 p.m.
Eastern plans to provide what he calls a “significant update.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the EU Council President that Iran has the “necessary will to end this war” but expects guarantees against future aggression.
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE is preparing to help the United States and its allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, making it the first Gulf state to enter the conflict as a combatant. Brent crude rose just above $105 after falling on Tuesday.
Cryptocurrency markets have reacted more slowly than stocks, a pattern that has continued for several weeks. Bitcoin hovered between $65,000 and $73,000 throughout the war, with stock prices fluctuating wildly from headline to headline. The gap between the sideways range of cryptocurrencies and the drawdown of stock market correction levels remains the most notable divergence in the overall asset landscape.
There were reasons for cautious optimism beyond geopolitics. Morgan Stanley has approved a Bitcoin ETF with just 14 basis points, 11 basis points below the category average. The product opens access to Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors, who manage $6.2 trillion, a channel that previously had no direct exposure to Bitcoin ETFs.
Two Prime CEO Alex Bloom cited three factors that could drive Bitcoin higher in the second quarter: the continued success of the Morgan Stanley ETF, Strategy’s STRC preferred stock product in funding Bitcoin purchases, and the swift resolution of the Iran war.
“Many of the market uncertainties may be resolved quickly,” Blume said in an email to CoinDesk. “Combined with new purchasing power, we could be in for a strong second quarter.”
Gold rose to nearly $4,700 for four straight days, but March’s drop of about 12% was its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The continued decline in precious metals during active wars continues to break historical precedent.
Whether Trump’s Wednesday speech creates a real off-ramp or just another headline in a speech-filled month will determine whether this rally continues. “We’re not sure about the long term. Investors will be looking for concrete evidence that the end of the war is in sight soon,” said one analyst.
