Ethereum ($ETH) Price regained a key technical level around $2,110, repeating the setup that sparked a 20% rally earlier this month.
However, two on-chain signals suggest that this breakout attempt is facing stronger resistance than the previous one. The difference between March 9th (the last recall) and today will be who still wants to sell and how much room there is before holders start taking profits.
Flashing red volume bar warns after SMA reuse
$ETH has been trading within an ascending parallel channel on the daily chart since February 6th, and this pattern was formed after a 43% drop from the swing high on January 28th. The channel itself is not automatically bullish. As rising channels after sharp declines often act as continuation patterns rather than reversal structures, $ETH To see an actual change in the trend, we need to break above the upper trend line (or the most important swing high).
20-day simple moving average (SMA), The trend indicator, which averages daily closing prices over the past 20 days, rebounded on March 9th and was up about 20% through March 16th. This move was accompanied by a series of green volume bars, indicating that buyers controlled the tape throughout the high bar.
Daily Ascending Channel: TradingView
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The setup seems different this time. The current rally started with decent volume, but the March 26th candle already shows a red volume bar. Red volume bars indicate that selling pressure is entering the market during an uptrend, but this signal was not present during the March 9th breakout.
This day’s candlestick is still in the process of forming, so this situation could change if buying interest reverses in the second half. If the green volume returns and sustains, the SMA recovery could develop into an even bigger move.
However, volume alone cannot explain why the ceiling is lower this time. The answer lies in on-chain profitability data.
NUPL shows there is little reason for sellers to hold it
Net Unrealized Gain and Loss (NUPL), a measure of total holder profitability across all Ethereum addresses, was approximately -0.11 as of March 8, deep in the capitulation zone. At that level, most holders were underwater and had little incentive to sell. In the absence of seller-side pressure, the 20-day SMA collection was able to rise to $2,380 without interruption.
The current reading of NUPL tells a different story. As of March 25th, NUPL is 0.00061, barely positive. Although this number seems small, it represents a significant change from the -0.11 measured prior to the previous increase. On March 22nd (before the current reclamation), NUPL was -0.05, already well above the yield minimum.
Its meaning is simple and clear. Holders who hit rock bottom in early March are now close to breaking even. Some have already recovered enough to consider selling to minimize losses rather than book a profit. if $ETH Traders feel momentum is waning, and this break-even point could become a distribution point as supply exceeds demand.
$ETH NUPL and price: Glassnode
But one cohort is not selling. Ethereum whales, defined as large non-exchange wallets, increased their collective holdings from 121.72 million $ETH Up to 122.62 million people $ETH From March 24th to March 26th, according to Santimento data. Approximately 900,000 people increase $ETHworth about $1.94 billion at current prices, indicating confidence by the largest holders.
$ETH Whale Supply: Santiment
However, currently the accumulation of whales is not as active as in early March. This aggressiveness was one of the reasons why Ethereum’s last price increase was up 20% even as NUPL soared. This time, NUPL is already high, but the whales are not adding a lot $ETH cache. What if I’m waiting for price confirmation?
Ethereum price level depends on realized price barrier
Ethereum price prediction for the current leg is $ETH The trade could close above the confluence zone between two major technical levels, $2,330 and $2,410. $ETH According to Glassnode data, the realized price, which represents the average cost base of all coins on the network, lies right between the confluence zone and is above $2,350. Real price ranges often act as important support/resistance when markets are volatile.
Achieved price range: Glassnode
This cluster is important because a daily close above $2,410 accomplishes three things at once. it would push $ETH A premium above realized price means the average holder feels more convinced. It clears the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance and confirms the breakout of the ascending channel. And that would put it above the swing high of $2,380, the upper end of March’s rally.
If so, the next Ethereum resistance levels will be $2,520, $2,650, and the 1.618 extension at $3,050. So, in theory, a $3,000 dream could be $ETH It’s still going on.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView
On the downside, the first level to sustain is $2,160. A daily close below this level would indicate that buyers are withdrawing from the SMA recovery. Below that, there is a floor at $2,010, and a break above it will reopen the risk below $2,000.
Therefore, a daily close above $2,410 would be the difference between a whale-supported rally toward $3,000 and a fadeback to the channel bottom.
Post Ethereum ($ETH) Ahead of $3,000 dream, price faces critical ceiling appeared first on BeInCrypto.
