Bitcoin falls towards $65,000 after President Trump’s new delay on Iran drives up oil prices, causing $200 million to disappear

Bitcoin fell towards $65,000 on Friday as investors reduced their exposure to risk assets after a flare-up in Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices, pushed U.S. Treasury yields to multi-month highs and strengthened the dollar.

According to crypto slate According to the data, BTC plunged nearly 5% to around $66,484, its lowest since the beginning of the month. This continues the trend of top cryptocurrencies repeatedly failing to hold up when macro pressures return.

A Bitunix analyst said: crypto slate:

“BTC has fully transitioned to a structure that reflects its liquidity structure. Price action is still confined within a wide range of $65,000 to $72,000, and the volume distribution shows clear supply overhead of over $70,000, while passive demand continues to accumulate in the $65,000 area.”

The price movement wiped out nearly $200 million from crypto traders in the past hour, with most of the losses borne by long traders, according to CoinGlass data.

Why is Bitcoin price falling?

BTC’s current decline is not due to a crypto-specific shock. Rather, the economic downturn may be related to geopolitical tensions shaking global markets.

President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he would delay plans to destroy Iran’s energy facilities for another 10 days, extending the interim deadline for negotiations to continue until April 6. This marks the second significant hiatus he has introduced amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.

The new announcement spooked global markets, sending Brent crude oil toward $110 a barrel, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.456%, its highest level since July, and keeping the Nasdaq in correction territory after falling 11% from recent highs.

At the same time, the dollar was heading for its strongest month since July 2025 as investors sought safety and markets priced in tighter financial conditions.

Against this backdrop, market analysts said Bitcoin’s decline showed that the flagship digital asset was still trading as a high-beta risk asset rather than a hedge against geopolitical stress.

When oil prices rise, investors don’t just see talk of war. They also recognize the threat of higher inflation, fewer interest rate cuts, and a tougher environment for wealth assets. In this setup, Bitcoin could fall on technology stocks instead of rising on gold or other defensive trades.

Oil and Yields Reset Macro Background

The best way to frame current market movements is to look at what happened to oil and interest rates after President Trump’s announcement. Although the cessation of attacks changed the immediate war schedule, it did not convince markets that the threat of inflation had eased enough to increase pressure on risk assets.

Oil benchmarks are still up significantly since the start of the war, with Brent crude up 52% ​​and U.S. crude up 43% since the start of the war, according to data from Oilprices.org.

These gains are large enough to keep inflation concerns alive even at moments when diplomacy appears to be making progress.

It is the key transmission channel for Bitcoin. Rising oil prices do not only signal geopolitical danger. They also voice concerns that inflation will remain high and central banks will be forced to maintain tight policies for an extended period of time.

By way of background, a March 26 Reuters poll found that most economists still expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold until at least September, but financial markets have moved much further, moving from expectations for rate cuts to debate over whether further rate hikes are possible this year.

On Friday, Reuters reported that markets are pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates in 2026. For Bitcoin, this is a hostile combination. Expensive energy, rising real-world borrowing costs, and markets increasingly focused on sustained inflation rather than new liquidity.

This month’s strong dollar has added to the burden.

The dollar index was on track for a monthly gain of 2.4%, its best performance since July, as investors sought safe haven assets and repriced the outlook for U.S. interest rates, according to TradingView data. A strong dollar often tightens global financial conditions by itself, making speculative trading less attractive.

Bitcoin had already lost momentum in recent weeks, but it was quickly exposed to change as the overall market began de-risking.

ETF support becomes less reliable

Meanwhile, BTC’s rally towards $65,000 also showed that the post-ETF market still needs steady capital inflows from institutional investors to absorb selling pressure.

The US Spot Bitcoin ETF complex did not lose all demand this month, but its flow pattern became uneven just as the macro environment deteriorated.

The fund has seen a significant slowdown after posting strong inflows of about $2 billion earlier this month, according to SoSoValue data.

For context, the U.S. exchange-traded investment vehicle recorded net outflows of more than $70 million in the trading week compared to the week ending March 13, when the fund had inflows. 767.33 million dollars.

These numbers represent a market where institutional demand is no longer reaching linearly.

This is because while strong ETF inflows can soften the blow for cryptocurrencies when macro headlines worsen, patchy inflows leave Bitcoin more exposed to similar fluctuations in yields, equities, and the dollar that are hurting the rest of the risk complex.

Huge option expirations accelerated the move.

Friday’s decline coincided with one of the biggest derivatives events of the year.

According to data from Greeks.live, approximately $13 billion of Bitcoin options have expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.56 and a maximum strike price of $74,000.

According to the company,

“Despite market volatility, Bitcoin trading activity remains relatively low. Bitcoin’s current implied volatility (IV) is 51% and Ethereum’s 70%, according to key options data. Volatility risk premium (VRP) has been rising as risk premium (RV) continues to decline, with 15-day VRP reaching nearly 20% earlier this week. Bitcoin has underperformed at both prices.” Trading activity in the first quarter was weak and market confidence remains low. ”

A Bitcoin option contract gives the holder the option to purchase BT at a set price before or at a specified future date without forcing the holder to execute the purchase.

In practice, this means that the buyer can walk away when the contract expires if the deal no longer makes sense, and can exercise options if it makes sense.

Cryptocurrency markets can experience high price volatility as expiration dates approach, as traders often adjust positions, roll up contracts, or exit trades altogether.

So while large option expirations like today often coincide with large selloffs in the market, that outcome does not happen automatically.

What the break says now

The move towards $65,000 says more about the market environment surrounding Bitcoin than a collapse of confidence in Bitcoin. Bitcoin remains dragged by inflation expectations, central bank assumptions, oil volatility, and a strong dollar.

If these variables fluctuate at the same time relative to a risky asset, BTC receives no special treatment. It can be sold with the rest.

For now, Bitcoin transactions will take place within a narrow but important framework. Bitunix analysts said: Crypto slate:

“In the short term, if the war dynamics remain ‘late but unresolved’ and interest rate expectations continue to tighten, BTC is likely to maintain high-frequency range-bound volatility and significantly expand liquidity between $65,000 and $72,000 to facilitate position reallocation. A true directional breakout would require an adjustment across key macro variables rather than being triggered by a single event.”