Ethereum’s rally has subsided after another failed attempt to break through the overhead resistance level. While the market is still above February’s baseline and the idea of a broader economic recovery is alive and well, this rejection shows the bulls are not yet in full control. For now, $ETH It appears to be caught between a short-term structure that continues to improve and a long-term trend that remains fragile.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
On the daily chart, $ETH is still trading below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, sitting around the $2.6 million and $3.2 million levels, respectively. Therefore, despite the recovery from the lows, the broader structure remains bearish. Although the market has improved markedly since the rebound from the $1.8,000 area, it is still hovering below a major trend resistance line and below a major supply zone that needs to break for a more definitive reversal.
The nearest upside barrier was around $2.3 million to $2.4 million, again rejecting the price. The next larger resistance zone is around $2.8,000, and this is the decisive area. $ETH A breakout would be needed before the market is considered bullish again. At this point, the recent uptrend looks more like a rebound within a damaged structure than a clean trend change. On the downside, the $1.8,000 support zone remains the key floor that holds the entire recovery together.
$ETH/USDT 4 hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows the recent rejection more clearly. $ETH It managed to rise within the ascending channel and temporarily break above its high boundary and enter the $2.4,000 resistance area. However, the breakout failed and the price fell below the upper limit, resulting in a classic false breakout. This failed move, combined with the RSI falling from overbought conditions to below 50, suggests that short-term momentum has weakened significantly.
This does not automatically mean the uptrend is over, but it does increase the likelihood of a deeper consolidation phase. if $ETH If we lose traction here, the first area to look at is the $2,000 area, where the bottom of the channel is located. The next important demand zone is the same $1.8,000 area that is also marked on the daily timeframe, and the market should hold this zone to avoid a sharper decline.
On the other hand, if the buyers recover $240,000 and hold above it, the market could quickly rally towards the top of the daily resistance, but this scenario seems remote at the moment.
sentiment analysis
Ethereum market sentiment has improved slightly compared to the panic seen earlier this year, but is still not entirely convincing. The Coinbase Premium Index has recovered from a sharply negative reading and recently returned to moderately positive territory, suggesting that US spot demand has returned to some extent. This is a constructive change, especially after the significant weakness seen during the decline. This suggests that US institutional investors, who have been consistent sellers since the beginning of the year, may be returning to the market.
Still, premiums remain relatively modest and do not yet reflect aggressive accumulation. In other words, while sentiment does indicate that market conditions are improving, it is not strong enough on its own to fully validate a sustained breakout. As a result, the surrounding atmosphere $ETH I’d say it’s cautiously constructive rather than completely bullish.
