Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan said Circle’s valuation could reach around $75 billion by 2030, setting out a long-term framework focused on stablecoin adoption rather than short-term regulatory noise.
In his weekly notes, Hogan frames Circle’s value in three variables: size of stablecoin market, $USDCmarket share and long-term profits of the company. Using what he described as conservative assumptions, he modeled a $1.9 trillion stablecoin market by the end of the decade, with Circle maintaining a 25% share and generating a margin of 0.8% before distribution costs.
This scenario would result in sales of about $3.8 billion and net income of $2.7 billion, which could support a valuation of nearly $75 billion using standard equity multiples, Hogan said.
The memo was released after Circle stock fell more than 20% on Tuesday. The decline followed reports that lawmakers are considering provisions in the CLARITY Act that could limit incentives such as yield on stablecoin balances. These incentives are the main driving force. $USDC Distributed through partners. As of Wednesday morning, the stock was trading around $103, up about 2% on the day.
Hogan did not comment directly on the price drop or the specifics of the law. Instead, he emphasized that stablecoin adoption is primarily driven by practicalities such as faster payments, global access, and integration with the financial system, rather than yield.
He also pointed to Circle’s position in the regulated market, saying: $USDC It accounts for about a quarter of the total stablecoin supply and a significantly larger share of the compliant onshore market. That positioning could become even more valuable if regulation directs capital to regulated issuers.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gómez. Please see our Editorial Policy for more information on how we create and review content.
