Bitcoin’s monthly performance is under scrutiny, with data from early 2026 indicating a possible change in seasonal patterns, with March currently positioned as a key inflection point. After back-to-back losses in January and February, the latest recovery raises questions about whether the asset can avoid extending its long losing streak.
Bitcoin March rebound test trending down
At the moment, Bitcoin is trading around $70,335, reflecting a 3% rise over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market has also shown some recovery, with market capitalization jumping 3.06% to $2.44 trillion. Well, the CMC20 index rose 3.58% to $147.25, indicating that near-term momentum is improving.
However, sentiment remains cautious. The Fear and Greed Index is still at 34, meaning the market is still in the “fear” zone.
The gap between rising prices and cautious sentiment suggests that despite recent gains, investors remain cautious and have not fully returned to riskier assets.
Geopolitics and macro factors impact Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s recent decline appears to be consistent with broader market pressures rather than moving independently. Bitcoin has fallen about 20% since late February, when the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran.
This move is consistent with weakness across other major digital assets, including Solana, XRP, and Cardano, indicating a broader pullback in the market.
Market movements during this period show that Bitcoin is trading in line with traditional risk assets. At the same time, rising energy prices have emerged as a potential driver, raising mining costs and increasing sentiment pressure.
Monthly heatmaps show seasonal patterns
Historical return data provides additional context regarding current price action. In 2026, Bitcoin recorded a loss of -10.17% in January and -14.94% in February, deviating from the long-term averages of +2.81% and +11.11% for these months.
It then recorded a +6.66% rise in March, indicating a slight recovery, but still not fully offsetting the initial decline.
Source: Coin Glass
So far, April has averaged +13.06%, while October and November have seen stronger growth at +19.92% and +41.12%. In contrast, June often marks a mid-year slowdown, with average returns being slightly negative.
Outlier events such as November 2013 (+449.35%) and June 2022 (-37.28%) highlight volatility. Median earnings remain moderate, typically in the single digits.
Seasonal trends suggest that Bitcoin may continue to face volatility even as March looks to break out of its loss pattern from the beginning of the year.
Related: Is June the worst month for Bitcoin? Past data reveals shocking trends
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