Last week, both Bitcoin and gold failed the safe-haven test. Bitcoin still trades as a riskier asset than “digital gold,” but gold has also failed to act as a clean geopolitical hedge as rising yields and inflation concerns outweighed the usual safe-haven bid.
At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin rallied to around $70,508 after falling to $67,436 earlier in the day, but gold is still trying to recover from a deep drop, with the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly hitting new highs before remaining above Friday’s close.
This series of events has changed the way we normally view geopolitical shocks. Investors haven’t jumped cleanly to classic hedging. They first sold, reassessed inflation and interest rates, and then bought back some risk only after comments about “productive” talks with Iran and a five-day suspension of strikes eased the immediate panic.
The final three sessions were divided into three different phases.
Friday marked a reassessment of inflation and yields. Bitcoin hovered around $70,272 after falling below $69,000 the previous day, linked to long-term Fed expectations and energy-driven inflationary pressures.
Over the weekend, escalating tensions between the US and Iran sent Bitcoin back down to $68,000, wiping out over $240 million in long positions.
Then the relievers turned things around on Monday. Bitcoin traded in a wide intraday range from $67,436 to $71,696, before rising above $70,000, in conjunction with the market’s take on President Trump’s de-escalation statement.
Gold followed a similar rough rhythm but did more damage
Barron’s reported that New York futures rose about 1.7% to $4,682.20 early Friday, but are still headed for a weekly decline of more than 7%, with month-on-month futures ending the week near $4,570.40.
Currently, gold has fallen intraday from around $4,100 to $4,260 as markets focus on oil-derived inflation and yield shocks.
Gold is not functioning as a clean geopolitical hedge. It is trading like an asset caught between forced selling, higher real interest rate expectations, and opportunistic buying.
Macrohinge remains at rate. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to around 4.30% on Friday as oil prices rose and expectations for interest rate cuts faded.
Today, the 10-year rose to 4.43%, its highest level since mid-2025. After the Iran talks headline, yields fell to around 4.31% and then settled around 4.386%. The inflation premium has eased, but it has not disappeared.
| period | Bitcoin | gold | US 10 year yield | market reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, March 20th | Around $70,272 after stabilizing from a drop below $69,000 | Futures closed near $4,682.20, week near $4,570.40 | Approximately 4.30% | Inflation and yield repricing |
| weekend | Extended liquidation occurs, falls towards $68,000 | Pressure builds for Monday’s opening | Pressure builds for Monday | geopolitical risk off |
| Monday, March 23rd | Ranged from $67,436 to $71,696, currently around $70,508 | During the day, it fell from $4,100 to $4,260, and then there was one indicator of a rebound near $4,286.10 and $4,500. | The high price is around 4.423% to 4.437%, the second half is around 4.36% to 4.386% | Revocation of relief after de-escalation comments |
Flow showing where investors sought liquidity
The price movement alone was enough to undermine the old “digital gold” line. The US Spot Bitcoin ETF ended the period from March 16th to March 20th in positive territory, but the direction worsened as the week progressed.
According to the daily flow table, there was a net inflow of $199.4 million on March 16, a further net inflow of $199.4 million on March 17, followed by a net outflow of $163.5 million on March 18, $90.2 million on March 19 and $52 million on March 20. This resulted in a net positive gain for the week of approximately $93.1 million, but the pattern was one of weakening demand rather than strong accumulation.
This distinction helps frame Bitcoin. ETF buyers did not disappear. Buying slowed as macro pressures returned and Bitcoin lost momentum over the weekend, but has since reversed.
Monday’s rally above $70,000 has improved the immediate situation, but it does not erase the previous course of events.
Bitcoin is still primarily traded as a high-beta macro asset, and hedging behavior only appears in the short term.
Gold ETF flows were weak. The cleanest US indexing data from last week showed a cluster of large withdrawals from the largest gold funds.
ETF.com reported that IAU outflows were $554.66 million on March 17, while commodity ETFs overall lost $735.29 million that day.
On March 18, ETF.com reported outflows of $414 million for GLD and $387 million for IAU. On March 19, GLD outflows were $760 million and IAU outflows were $329 million.
So gold becomes the more obvious asset at this stage. Bitcoin fell but has since recovered, with Bitcoin ETF flows still finishing slightly positive this week. Gold prices were further damaged, with large holders buying back through the break.
Investors appear to be using gold ETFs as a source of liquidity rather than treating them as a preferred haven. This is a meaningful change as gold typically has a stronger default claim as a haven during geopolitical stress.
The broader context remains important. Global gold ETFs received $5.3 billion in inflows in February, with holdings reaching a record high of 4,171 tonnes. This shows that the week of US capital outflows did not come after a long and sustained period of global liquidation.
After the previous strong background, the reversal is even more pronounced. In other words, the selling pressure was strong enough to overwhelm a market that had just recorded nine consecutive months of global capital inflows.
| ETF flow signals | latest reading | what it suggests |
|---|---|---|
| BTC ETF, March 16th | +$199 million | Demand is strong at the beginning of the week |
| BTC ETF, March 17th | +$199 million | Demand remains strong even before macro shifts intensify |
| BTC ETF, March 18th | -$163 million | Macro pressure returns and reverses |
| BTC ETF, March 19th | -$90 million | The leak continued |
| BTC ETF, March 20th | -$52 million | Three consecutive days of capital outflows into the weekend |
| Gold ETF, March 17th to 19th | Large scale GLD and IAU withdrawals over 3 sessions | Investors raised cash and reduced exposure |
Next move still reflects yields, oil and expectations
Monday’s bounce changed direction, but the driver hierarchy remained the same.
The market still appears to be more sensitive to oil, inflation expectations, and interest rate settings than the old safe-haven label attached to either asset.
Short-term inflation expectations rose from about 3.3% to 3.5%, long-term inflation expectations rose from about 3.1% to 3.3%, and one-year gasoline price expectations rose from about 10 cents to about 43 cents, according to an early March chart from the University of Michigan. These developments help explain why the inflation premium on yields remained elevated after Monday’s relief reversal.
The Fed’s March outlook still indicates only modest easing, with the median federal funds rate at the end of 2026 at 3.4% and the midpoint in 2025 at around 3.6%. As such, there is little room for a quick return to the kind of backdrop of falling real yields that would normally please both gold and Bitcoin.
If inflation risks remain entrenched in energy and interest rates, markets could absorb encouraging geopolitical headlines but still keep the bar high for non-yielding assets.
Oil is at the center of that calculation. The latest EIA outlook predicts North Sea Brent prices will remain above $95 for the next two months, fall below $80 in the third quarter and head toward $70 by year-end, assuming the disruption eases.
If this trend holds, pressure on real yields will ease and the current decline in hedge stocks could look like a temporary disruption. If oil prices remain high for an extended period of time, Monday’s rally in gold and Bitcoin will look more like a rescue trade than the start of a durable turn.
The published outlook is wide-ranging, but still leaves room for recovery for both assets. The outlook for gold in 2026 shows a 5% to 15% appreciation in the shallow slip case and a 15% to 30% appreciation in the deeper risk scenario, while a 5% to 20% decline in the reflation case.
In cryptocurrencies, Investing.com reports that Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target to $112,000 due to expected weaker ETF-led demand and slower progress on US crypto legislation, while Standard Chartered warned that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 before recovering.
These ranges fit the current market structure. Yields continue to decline. The trend remains positive due to calmer energy markets, stabilization of inflation, and recovery in ETF demand.
Narrower predictions than the old “digital gold” argument typically allows for
Gold and Bitcoin both stalled as markets marked returns on high-yielding assets and questioned how quickly inflation would fall.
Monday’s rebound showed both could still bounce back once the scare subsides. It also showed that neither asset was automatically returned to safe-haven status as traders reacted to the prospect of de-escalation.
The next quarter has already seen the cleanest checkpoints.
We need to stop the rise in 10-year US Treasury yields. Oil needs to continue toward the downward trajectory outlined by the EIA outlook.
Bitcoin ETF flows need to return to sustained creation after three consecutive outflow sessions. Gold needs to sustain the rebound without another major GLD and IAU exit.
Until those things happen, markets will continue to say the same thing they have been saying from Friday to Monday, with cash flows and explicit yields trumping narrative when inflation risk is elevated.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
