Bitcoin continues to trade in a volatile zone after months of relentless selling pressure from its October 2025 high of over $125,000. The asset is currently hovering below $70,000 and is about to stabilize after a dramatic downtrend, but several technical and on-chain signals suggest that the battle between buyers and sellers is far from over.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
Looking at the daily time frame, we see that the overall picture remains bearish. $BTC Since its peak above $125,000, it has been stuck in a descending channel, consistently making highs and lows. The asset is currently trading well below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, acting as dynamic resistance overhead. The 200-day moving average is around $92,000, and the 100-day moving average is near $80,000, both of which are well above the current price.
The daily RSI has recovered from the heavily oversold region and is currently hovering around the midline. The key horizontal support zone between $58,000 and $62,000 (highlighted in blue) held during the February capitulation wick, and this area remains the most important floor to watch. However, for a meaningful reversal, the market would need to regain the $75,000 to $80,000 zone, which also coincides with the upper bound of the descending channel.
$BTC/USDT 4 hour chart
Zooming in on the 4-hour chart reveals a more constructive short-term structure. Since its low in early February nearing $60,000, $BTC Supported by an uptrend line, it is forming an ascending channel pattern with higher lows. However, the price recently faced a decisive rejection, hitting resistance near the $75,000 mark before plummeting back toward $70,000.
The area between $74,000 and $76,000 acted as a stubborn supply zone, rejecting multiple attempts to break above. The 4-hour RSI has also eased from overbought conditions and is now below the 40 level, indicating a relatively bearish shift in momentum. A confirmation below the uptrend line (around $66,000) could accelerate the sell-off towards $60,000, while a break above $75,000 could trigger a tightening towards $80,000, turning the market outlook bullish in the short term.
On-chain analysis
The FX whale ratio, which measures the proportion of large trades to total FX inflows, has shown a notable spike in recent weeks. After several months of relatively subdued whale activity amid a long-term downward trend, the ratio has jumped from about 0.45 to over 0.6, indicating that large holders are becoming more active on the exchange.
Historically, sharp increases in this indicator coincide with periods of heightened volatility, as whales tend to move their coins to exchanges for sale or repositioning. The current rally, coupled with prices hovering around a technically sensitive zone, suggests that major companies are preparing for a decisive move. It may be decided whether this leads to distribution (sales) at these levels or to accumulation $BTCDirection in the coming weeks.
