Historically, there have been similarities between past Bitcoin cycles in both bull and bear markets. Many of these have to do with the rate at which prices rise and the rates at which they begin to collapse. Naturally, expectations arose that the price of Bitcoin would also follow the previous cycle, leading to calls for even lower prices. But could there be a deviation this time?
Bitcoin is about to see another big crash. But how low?
Analyst Crypto Patel highlighted Bitcoin price performance history over the past few cycles and how this could translate into the current cycle. Over the years, Bitcoin bear markets have often seen the digital asset plummet by an average of 80%, suggesting this is likely to happen again.
Following this same trend, the analyst explains that if a 77% collapse occurs this cycle, the BTC price will reach around $32,000. However, Crypto Patel does not believe this is possible and believes the Bitcoin price will never go this low.
Now usually after the third wave prices take a big plunge and often head towards a new bottom. This means that another crash remains before Bitcoin reaches bottom. The question now is how low prices can go.
Crypto analysts 77% believe the Bitcoin price will not fall below $40,000 this cycle, rather than crashing to $32,000. This essentially means that it never drops below 70%. Instead, the $40,000-$50,000 level is expected to be the biggest pain point for investors.
It still follows a four-year cycle.
Despite the deviation that occurred in 2024, when the price of Bitcoin hit an all-time high before the halving, some parts of the four-year cycle appear to follow the trend. As @ArdiNSC pointed out about
It was the same in 2013, 2017, before 2021, and eventually in 2017, each time almost four years apart. Given this, it is likely that at least part of the four-year cycle is still underway. In this case, it could mean that the BTC price decline will continue, as it has historically bottomed the year before the halving.
This means that BTC is just entering a bear market, lending credence to Crypto Patel’s prediction that another major crash is coming. If this same four-year cycle holds, the Bitcoin price will likely reach a new all-time high sometime between 2028 and 2029.
Featured image by Dall.E, chart by TradingView.com
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