Prediction markets seem to be pointing to a bearish scenario for Bitcoin (BTC). As of this writing, March 18, 2026, data from Polymarket, the largest decentralized betting company, shows that most expectations are centered around $65,000 per Bitcoin at the end of March.
This estimate comes after prices fell to around $60,000 in the first week of February before recovering. Bitcoin’s rally, which reached $76,000 on March 17th, reinforced the realization that: The market may be regaining momentumwhich motivates platform users to bet on the rising scenario.
This morning, CriptoNoticias reported on the social network that there was a majority expectation that Bitcoin would reach $80,000 this month.
But expectations changed in just a few hours. Bitcoin’s setbacks Bitcoin and other assets have been under pressure after big US inflation numbers were released that were better than expected.
Following this, Betting in polymarkets has changed dramatically.
At Polymarket, odds are determined from real money bets, so this data can be interpreted as a true signal of investor sentiment.
The current concentration of money around the $65,000 option (36% at about $4 million) suggests that the market believes it is more viable. Bitcoin will likely stabilize at this level in the short term.
This trend is consistent with a cautious view on the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bullish move in recent days. For example, market analyst Willy Wu recently warned: This rally could be a “bullish trap”as reported by CriptoNoticias.
As Wu explained, Bitcoin is showing strength, but its momentum is primarily driven by the futures market and short-term participants, a combination that often creates volatility and little bullish conviction.
A bull trap occurs when the price breaks through a key level to the upside, attracting buyers, but lacks solid support, eventually causing a sharp decline. Moreover, this expert claims that the market may still be in the doldrums. More extensive correction phase.
In the long term, the current forecast for Polymarket is also bearish. As seen in the following post, bettors believe there is a 51% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $45,000 on December 31, 2026.
For now, all that remains is to wait. March is shaping up to be a key month to assess whether Bitcoin can maintain its bullish momentum or whether it is just a blip in a broader bear market, as some analysts have warned.
(Tag Translate)Bitcoin (BTC)
