Israel’s finance ministry has put a weekly price tag on the country’s growing war with Iran, estimating that the economy could take a hit of more than 9 billion shekels (equivalent to $2.93 billion) per week if emergency restrictions continue.
The estimates link economic losses to current “red” restrictions on home front troops, including school closures, travel restrictions, and transitions to essential services.
Treasury officials also outlined a less restrictive scenario, Reuters reported. The report said that moving to the “orange” level, which would allow economic activity to expand, would reduce the weekly hit to about 4.3 billion shekels ($1.35 billion), about half of the “red” scenario.
This range is a reminder that war spending is not just a function of military spending. It also reflects how much of the country’s economy has been idle and for how long.
Before the latest conflict, Israel’s economy recorded solid growth, forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2025, with even stronger growth expected in 2026 following October’s ceasefire in Gaza, according to Reuters.
If tightened regulations continue for a long period of time, there is a risk that labor supply and demand will be simultaneously suppressed and some of the momentum will reverse.
Contextualizing Israel’s economic losses with Bitcoin
In financial markets, traders already measure shocks in multiple units. For Israel’s war economy, one of those parallel measures became Bitcoin.
The appeal of Bitcoin as a comparison tool is simple. The flagship digital asset trades around the clock and is priced globally in dollars, making it a widely tracked benchmark asset that responds to the same combination of risk appetite, liquidity, and geopolitical headlines that shape other markets.
At current prices, using Bitcoin prices in the low $70,000 range, the ministry’s estimate of about $3 billion per week equates to about 41,300 Bitcoins.
This shift does not imply a government purchasing program. Instead, it represents a way to translate macroeconomic holes into numbers that investors can compare with other crypto market flows.
On the other hand, the less restrictive “Orange” pass reduces the weekly hit to around 18,000 Bitcoins at the same price point.
If war restrictions continue, the calculations will increase rapidly. Four weeks of losses at the “red” level would mean approximately $11.7 billion in lost activity, or approximately 165,000 Bitcoins at a reference price of $71,000.
On the other hand, a four-week loss at the “orange” level would mean about $5.4 billion, or about 70,000 more coins at a similar price.
What 41,300 Bitcoins Means from a Supply and ETF Perspective
41,300 To put Bitcoin in context, it is helpful to compare the two most specific flow metrics in the Bitcoin market: the number of coins created and the number of coins that large institutional channels can absorb.
After the April 2024 halving, the Bitcoin network will generate approximately 450 new coins per day. This works out to approximately 3,150 BTC per week.
Based on this, Israel’s estimated weekly loss under the “red” limit is equivalent to over 13 weeks of new Bitcoin creation. This is much larger than the weekly global mine supply.
On the other hand, this comparison also intersects with the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, which has been the most prominent institutional demand channel for BTC in recent years.
On days with strong inflows, large funds such as BlackRock and Fidelity could absorb around 3,000 to 4,000 Bitcoins.
At this pace, the 41,300 Bitcoin figure represents nearly two full weeks of massive ETF-style accumulations.
And if war restrictions last for a long time, their magnitude will become even more pronounced. A “red” month of approximately 165,000 Bitcoins would dwarf both new issuance and the typical ETF accumulation period in coin terms.
What if Israel held these coins?
If the government currently holds around 41,300 Bitcoins, it could rank as one of the world’s largest known sovereign or quasi-sovereign holders of the top cryptocurrency.
BitcoinTreasuries.net lists the United States, China, and the United Kingdom as the top three government holdings of BTC.
Ukraine is next with 46,351 Bitcoins, followed by Nayib Bukele’s El Salvador, listed with 7,581 Bitcoins.
In this league table, a reserve of 41,300 coins would place Israel next to Ukraine and above El Salvador, effectively making it the top five holders.
However, there is no indication that Israel plans to introduce a Bitcoin reserve. This is because Israel’s own relationship with cryptocurrencies is often defined by the tension between adoption and banking access.
In particular, legal and policy developments highlight that local banks may be wary of servicing crypto-related activities, including cases in which courts have upheld banks’ ability to refuse service to companies engaged in cryptocurrencies.
Still, Israel has experienced steady growth in its crypto economy, with inflows exceeding $713 billion from 2024 to 2025.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
